Commodities analysts from Societe Generale are sounding an alarm, suggesting that the global oil market is becoming too complacent about potential supply disruptions. They argue that current crude oil inventory levels do not accurately reflect the amount of oil that is readily accessible, pointing to a ‘circulation’ issue rather than geological scarcity.
This perspective challenges the prevailing sense of comfort in the market, implying that unforeseen supply constraints could pose a significant risk.
Why the Oil Market is Too Complacent About the Supply Threat It's Facing
Global oil inventories do not give an accurate picture of what’s readily accessible, argue commodities analysts
Published: May 5, 2026 at 9:22 a.m. ET
Most storage facilities and vessels cannot be fully emptied because they would no longer be operational.
Photo: Getty Images
Crude-oil inventories may be providing an unwarranted comfort to the oil market, a team of strategists say.
“The issue is not geological scarcity, but circulation,” was the warning sounded Tuesday by a trio of Societe Generale analysts, led by Michael Haigh, the firm’s head of commodities research.
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