Nasdaq Hits Intraday Record as Nvidia Soars on Weak Jobs Data, Signaling Potential Fed Pause

U.S. stocks surged on Friday, fueled by a surprisingly soft jobs report that intensified speculation the Federal Reserve might maintain current interest rates in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 250 points (0.5%) at 51,176.46, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, reaching 7,722.72. The Nasdaq Composite led the rally, climbing 1.2% to 27,190.86, even hitting an all-time high earlier in the session before easing as Treasury yields reversed course.

Despite Friday’s robust performance, the Dow concluded the week down approximately 1.3%. The S&P 500 saw little change, dipping 0.3%, while the Nasdaq managed a 0.6% weekly gain, marking its third consecutive weekly advance.

Initially, Treasury yields fell sharply after the September employment data was released but subsequently rebounded, pushing equity markets slightly off their intraday peaks.

Tech stocks experienced a resurgence of risk-taking, with Nvidia shares achieving an all-time intraday high, a first since May, though it ultimately closed below its previous record close. Other technology sector leaders like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and AMD also hit new all-time highs, with AMD shares specifically rising nearly 3%.

Last month's nonfarm payrolls report revealed the U.S. economy added a mere 29,000 jobs, significantly below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 84,000. Concurrently, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, exceeding expectations that it would hold steady at 4.1%.

Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic, commented, "This is the exact kind of number the market wanted from a labor standpoint. Not too hot, not too cold... not overly great, and not weakening." This data led traders to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, with Fed funds futures trading now suggesting a 77% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen, expressed optimism on CNBC's "Squawk Box," stating that the jobs report could provide market support ahead of an anticipated "very strong" earnings season. She added, "So, I think this could be the start of the Santa Claus rally that we've all been hoping for."

Further easing market concerns, oil prices retreated following reports that European nations are considering releasing strategic fuel reserves, partly due to pressure from the Trump administration. This move aims to alleviate global supply shortages.

Investors entered Friday's session following a modestly positive Thursday. However, the Dow and S&P 500 were still on track for weekly losses amid a global bond rout, with the Nasdaq being the sole major index poised for weekly gains.

Additional Market Updates:

Stocks Close Higher to End the Week: The S&P 500 advanced 0.49% to 7,722.93, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% to 27,190.86, and the Dow Industrials rose 250.88 points (0.49%) to 51,177.44.

Nasdaq Climbs into Positive Territory for the Week: Friday's rally secured the Nasdaq Composite's third consecutive positive week, with a weekly gain of 0.5%.

Dow Faces Another Negative Week: Despite Friday's 0.5% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was set for its fourth negative week in the last five, down more than 1% for the week.

Citi Raises Price Target on Strategy: Citi increased its price target for bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) to $240 per share from $136, implying 34% upside, citing a bullish bitcoin outlook. The bank maintained its 'buy' rating, cautioning on the company's growing but "dilutive" cash reserve. Strategy shares were up 3%.

Nike Stock Falls on Longer Turnaround Timeline: Nike (NKE) shares fell 6% at open after a 10% premarket drop. The global sportswear giant reported a mixed fiscal first quarter of 2027, with weak trends in China offsetting growth in North America. The company plans $2.5 billion in cost savings by 2031 but expects high-single-digit revenue decline in 2027. The stock is down 46% year-to-date.

Bull Market Celebrates Fourth Birthday: October marks the fourth anniversary of the global bull market, which UBS believes still has an upside trajectory. Burkhard Varnholt of UBS Switzerland noted that corporate earnings growth has outpaced expectations, signifying an "economic revival."

Tesla Deliveries Exceed Expectations: Tesla's third-quarter deliveries came in at 486,532, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of 461,100. Shares rose in morning trading.

Privacy Coin ETF Emerges as Top Performer: The Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) surged over 60% in the past month, boasting a year-to-date gain of about 253%. Renewed interest in privacy, spurred by advancements in AI, has driven speculative capital into privacy coins. In contrast, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is down about 1% this year, and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) is down 5%.

Nvidia Hits Record Intraday High: Nvidia (NVDA) shares popped, rising over 3% to $237.88 and briefly hitting an all-time intraday high, reflecting strong market confidence in the semiconductor giant.

Jobs Revisions Indicate Weaker Labor Market: Revisions in the September jobs report downgraded July and August job creation figures. July was revised down by 31,000 to a net job loss of 10,000, while August saw a 29,000 reduction to a total of 133,000. Economist Justin Wolfers noted, "Over the past 3 months, we've an average of a mere +17k per month."

Stocks Open Higher Friday: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 322 points (0.6%), the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1% at market open.

Fed Funds Futures Price in Higher Likelihood of October Hold: Fed funds futures trading now suggests an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, up from approximately 76% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

U.S. Adds 29K Jobs in September, Unemployment Rises: The U.S. economy added a lower-than-expected 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, with economists having anticipated 84,000 new payrolls and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate.

Stocks Making Premarket Moves:

• Nike (NKE): Fell over 10% after missing revenue expectations for its fiscal first quarter, reporting a 4% sales decline primarily due to its China business, and announcing layoffs for 2027.
• ON Semiconductor (ON), Synaptics (SYNA): Shares jumped over 7% and 14% respectively following reports that ON Semiconductor will acquire Synaptics for $123 per share in cash, valuing the transaction at $5.7 billion.
• Nexalin Technology (NXL): Shares fell over 18% after announcing a 10-year distribution and manufacturing deal with Inovanexa Medical Technologies for its neurostimulation device across seven South American countries.

Seagate Technology and Western Digital Shares Fall: Seagate Technology (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) shares slipped over 10% and 8% respectively after Toshiba announced plans to double its hard disk drive production capacity for data centers, investing $380 million in its Philippines facilities. Toshiba is a major competitor alongside Seagate and Western Digital.

Morgan Stanley Names Nvidia Top Semiconductor Stock: Morgan Stanley reinstated Nvidia (NVDA) as its top semiconductor pick, citing its diverse customer base and the critical role of GPUs in agentic AI. Analyst Joseph Moore highlighted that a significant portion of Nvidia's business comes from a broad range of AI companies, Neoclouds, sovereign entities, ODMs, OEMs, and enterprise customers. Moore holds an 'overweight' rating with a $300 price target.

Oil Prices Extend Losses: Oil prices fell more than 2% Friday morning, with Brent crude futures dropping to $99.78 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures falling to $89.40. This came after reports of potential European diesel and crude stock releases following pressure from the Trump administration to ease global supply shortages.

Moderna to Replace Warner Bros. in Nasdaq 100: Moderna (MRNA) will replace Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in the Nasdaq 100 index, effective October 9. Moderna's shares have risen nearly sixfold over the past year, partly due to positive initial results for its experimental personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck. Warner Bros. is undergoing a merger with Paramount Skydance.

European Bond Yields Retreat: European government bond yields fell on Friday, concluding a volatile week where regional securities had hit multi-decade highs. Yields on British, German, Italian, French, and Swiss 10-year government bonds all saw declines.

European Stocks Edge Higher: The pan-European Stoxx 600 added 0.3% in early morning trading, with tech stocks leading gains. Germany's DAX index led major regional bourses, also up 0.3%.

Asia Markets End Mixed: Asian stocks closed mixed on Friday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 losing 0.94% and Topix down 0.99%. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.46%, while its Kosdaq slid 0.11%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.79%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 2.8% lower.

Volvo Shares Slump in Premarket: Volvo Cars shares dropped more than 5% in premarket trading after the Swedish automaker warned of an increasingly challenging market, deteriorating near-term outlook, and impacts on cash flow and sales volumes, primarily due to worsening conditions in China and a slower recovery in the U.S.

Brazil to Vote in High-Stakes Election: Brazilians are set to vote on October 4 in the first round of a presidential election featuring incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro. The outcome could significantly affect Brazil's international relationships, particularly with the U.S. and China.

Bitget Not Expecting Full Recovery from Hack: Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated the crypto exchange is "not expecting to recover a lot of funds" from last week's $388 million cyberattack, although approximately $1.1 million has been frozen. Chen emphasized exchanges' responsibility to protect users.

U.S. Treasury Yields Rise: U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, reversing some of Thursday's declines. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 1.8 basis points to 5.252%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 2.6 basis points to 5.629%. This came as investors continue to assess the U.S.-Iran conflict and its potential implications for inflation and interest rates.

U.S. Market Regulator Seeks to Ease Crypto Holdings for Funds: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed new rules to simplify how investment advisers and regulated funds can hold cryptocurrencies for clients. The proposal aims to update custody requirements and remove regulatory barriers, potentially allowing self-custody under specific conditions and state trust companies to act as custodians.

Oil Extends Gains on Mideast Developments: Oil prices extended gains as reports indicated the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East. Brent crude futures gained 0.33% to $102.65 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced 0.17% at $93.03 per barrel, driven by simmering U.S.-Iran tensions.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Falls, South Korea's Kospi Opens Lower: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mixed on Friday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 declining 1.06% and South Korea's Kospi losing 0.33%, as Mideast energy worries dampened sentiment.

Stock Futures Open Flat: U.S. equity futures were largely unchanged on Thursday evening. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 10 points (0.02%), S&P 500 futures rose 0.03%, and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.07%.