Bitcoin has seen a substantial rally this week, exceeding 20%, driven by U.S. Treasury actions in the bond market and White House advocacy for the Clarity Act. Despite this surge, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi anticipate that Bitcoin will likely end 2026 near its current price levels, with an average contract prediction of around $75,000.
Bitcoin experienced a significant surge this week, climbing over 20% and reaching heights not seen since May. This impressive rally follows crucial interventions in the bond market by the U.S. Treasury, which eased pressure on risk assets, and a high-profile White House event advocating for the approval of the Clarity Act market structure proposal. Industry leaders and regulators joined President Donald Trump in urging Congress to pass the legislation.
Despite the recent upward momentum, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are expressing caution regarding Bitcoin's short-term future. The consensus on Kalshi suggests that the cryptocurrency is likely to end 2026 close to its current trading price, with speculators averaging contracts to predict a year-end price around $75,000.
A Bitcoin ATM is seen in San Rafael, California. Traders on prediction markets are tempering expectations for Bitcoin's year-end price.
The platform's contracts involve traders betting on whether Bitcoin's price will fall within specific $5,000 ranges by midnight on January 1, 2027. These contracts are settled using Bitcoin price data provided by CF Benchmarks.
Prior to Wednesday's developments, Kalshi traders were more optimistic, with the most probable year-end price estimate standing at $66,000. However, the current forecast of $75,000 actually represents a slight decrease from Bitcoin's recent trading value, which has surpassed $77,000.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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