A severe jet fuel shortage, triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatens to disrupt summer travel across Asia and Europe. Exports have plummeted, leading European airports to warn of a “systemic” crisis, with major players like ConocoPhillips forecasting critical shortages for import-dependent nations by June or July. The crisis is intensifying as pre-war fuel shipments run out and global supply chains face prolonged disruption.
A critical jet fuel shortage is poised to severely disrupt summer travel across Asia and Europe, stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Before the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran on February 28, the Persian Gulf was the world's primary source of jet fuel, according to the International Energy Agency. However, Iran's subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted these crucial exports globally.
Europe, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern fuel, previously imported about 20% of its jet fuel from the Gulf, making it directly impacted. Furthermore, major refineries in Asia—specifically China, South Korea, and India—which typically supply global markets, are struggling to meet demand due to their own dependence on crude oil from the Middle East, with roughly 90% of the Gulf's oil exports destined for Asia before the war.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, described the situation as a "slow motion car crash," suggesting a collective inaction in addressing the escalating crisis.
Data from Kpler indicates a sharp decline in global jet fuel exports, plummeting 30% to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 1.9 million bpd last year. Weekly figures show an even more dramatic drop, with jet fuel loaded on tankers falling 50% to 18.6 million barrels last week, compared to 37.8 million barrels in the same week last year.
Gary Simmons, Chief Operating Officer at Valero Energy, a leading independent U.S. refiner, confirmed the severe scarcity, stating, "Jet is incredibly short."
Europe Sounding Alarms
The Airports Council International Europe, an industry trade group, warned the 27-nation economic bloc in an April 9 letter that the EU faces a "systemic jet fuel shortage" if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The escalating fuel costs have already compelled major airlines, such as Lufthansa, to cancel 20,000 short-haul flights through October.
According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel prices in Europe have doubled over the past year, reaching $187 per barrel by May 1. While European Commissioner for Transport Apostolos Tzitzikostas noted on April 21 that there was "no evidence of actual shortages in Europe," commercial jet fuel stocks are under considerable pressure.
The airports association's letter indicated that fuel shortages would hit Europe within three weeks if exports through the Strait of Hormuz didn't resume "in a significant and stable way." Chevron CEO Mike Wirth cautioned that normalizing oil flows would take "weeks and probably into months," citing the need for mine clearance in the strait and the redeployment of hundreds of ships globally to restore supply chains.
The Grace Period is Over
Mike Wirth of Chevron further emphasized that fuel shortages will become a growing concern in the coming weeks, as "the price signals in some of these places have been quite extreme and what they're really running into now is a concern about supply."
Andrew O'Brien, CFO of ConocoPhillips, explained that the market enjoyed a temporary reprieve as pre-war tanker shipments from the Persian Gulf arrived in March and April. However, this "grace period" has now concluded. Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon Mobil, added that commercial inventories of crude oil and refined products, which have helped cushion the impact, will eventually be drawn down to minimum working levels.
O'Brien warned that the full economic impact of the Middle East oil supply disruption would soon become evident, with some import-dependent countries potentially facing critical shortages by June or July.
U.S. Refiners Step Up
In response to the crisis, the EU is actively seeking alternative jet fuel suppliers, with a particular focus on the United States, as confirmed by Transport Commissioner Tzitzikostas. U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum have ramped up jet fuel production. U.S. exports to Europe surged over 400% to 94,000 bpd in April, compared to figures from February when the conflict began.
Valero's COO Simmons noted that the company increased jet fuel's share of its total distillate production to 30% in March, up from its typical 26%, with plans to commence jet fuel production at additional refineries. Similarly, Marathon Petroleum's CEO Maryann Mannen announced a 30,000 bpd increase in jet fuel production capacity at its Garyville, Louisiana refinery in March.
While the U.S. is generally more shielded from fuel shortages due to robust domestic production, the West Coast, particularly California, faces potential supply challenges. The Energy Information Administration reported that in 2025, the West Coast imported 93,000 bpd of jet fuel, over 80% of which came from South Korea. With Korean refineries impacted by the loss of Middle Eastern crude, these exports to the U.S. West Coast could be jeopardized.
Kpler's Smith summarized the cascading effects: "It is a series of dominoes that are falling here. Jet is the first one to go. Asia is the first region, but it's going to spread across the globe, and it's also going to spread across the products."
