A discarded SpaceX rocket stage is on an unintentional collision course with the moon this Wednesday, creating a new crater and raising significant concerns about growing space debris. Scientists are eager to observe the high-speed impact and the resulting plume, which will occur on the moon’s near side and highlight the importance of improved debris monitoring for future lunar missions. This event underscores the need for better space traffic management as nations and private companies increasingly target lunar exploration.
A derelict upper stage of a SpaceX rocket is hurtling towards an unplanned rendezvous with the moon, more than a year after it successfully launched a pair of lunar landers. This celestial billiard shot is predicted to culminate in an unintentional collision this Wednesday, creating a new crater and ejecting a plume of dust and debris that scientists and amateur astronomers are keenly anticipating.
Space tracking expert Bill Gray estimates the rocket's impact speed at a staggering 5,400 mph (8,700 kph) – roughly seven times the speed of sound. The target area is near the Einstein Crater on the moon's sunlit western limb. Early morning observers in the eastern United States, Canada, and much of South America are expected to have the best vantage points for potential observations of the aftermath.
While this particular piece of space junk doesn't pose an immediate threat, it underscores the escalating problem of orbital debris as Earth's immediate space environment becomes increasingly congested. "Things are getting crowded up there," noted Gray, who plans to observe the event from New Brunswick, Canada.
SpaceX never intended for its rocket to strike the moon. However, experts suggest the collision could have been averted if the upper stage had been deliberately nudged into a solar orbit. This marks the second known accidental lunar impact by a dead rocket, following a Chinese rocket segment that created craters on the lunar far side in 2022.
Fortuitously for astronomers, the upcoming impact will occur on the moon's near side, releasing energy equivalent to three tons of TNT. While the fleeting impact flash itself will likely be too faint to discern, the subsequent stream of ejected material could extend for miles and remain visible through telescopes for tens of minutes.
"The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away," explained Benjamin Fernando of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Fernando is actively encouraging both professional and amateur astronomers to observe the event, highlighting that a key reason for their interest is to assess the potential hazard debris impacts pose to future lunar missions and astronauts. He predicts the impact crater could measure nearly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep, too small for Earth-based viewing but detectable by orbiting spacecraft.
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter are poised to capture crucial before-and-after imagery of the crash site. Danuri is expected to pass within a few kilometers of the SpaceX rocket just minutes before impact, according to Fernando and his team.
The abandoned rocket segment, approximately 40 feet (12 meters) long and weighing around 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms), delivered two private lunar landers into space on January 15, 2025. One, Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost, achieved a historic fully successful private lunar touchdown, while the other, from Japan's ispace, unfortunately crashed.
With natural meteoroid impacts offering little to no warning, scientists emphasize the valuable insights gained from observing well-tracked human-made objects striking the moon. NASA itself intentionally crashed rocket sections and lunar modules during the Apollo era to gather seismic data, and in 2009, its LCROSS spacecraft was deliberately impacted to search for ice near the lunar south pole.
As the moon emerges as a new frontier for exploration, scientists stress the urgent need to enhance debris monitoring and traffic control, preemptively managing the risks before a surge of robots and astronauts arrive. The United States and China are in a renewed race to land humans on the moon within the coming years, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin competing to provide landers for NASA’s future Artemis IV moonwalkers.
Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell concluded, "This impact will not be a problem. But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue and we need not to leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind."
