Stifel has upgraded Shopify to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’, setting a new price target of $150 per share, citing the growing trend of agentic AI as a significant catalyst. The investment firm believes this technology will accelerate Shopify’s already robust market share gains.
Agentic commerce, powered by AI bots, is expected to revolutionize online shopping. While monetization is still in its early stages, Stifel sees Shopify’s ease of adoption for this technology as a key advantage, projecting considerable future upside for the stock despite recent declines.
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Shares of e-commerce giant Shopify are poised for a significant rebound, driven by the burgeoning trend of agentic artificial intelligence, according to a new report from Stifel. The investment firm has upgraded its rating on the company's stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and significantly increased its price target to $150, signaling a potential upside of nearly 22% from recent trading levels.
Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane highlighted Shopify's consistent gross merchandise value (GMV) growth as evidence of its ongoing market share gains. Lane believes this growth trajectory will accelerate as agentic commerce becomes more prevalent. "Shopify's outsized GMV growth is clear evidence of consistent share-gains, which we believe will accelerate as agentic commerce proliferates," Lane wrote in the report. He added that management characterizes the company's strength as broad-based, spanning across different geographies, merchant sizes, and sales channels, rather than being reliant on a single growth driver.
Agentic commerce refers to the use of AI-powered bots to automate the process of finding and purchasing goods on behalf of consumers or businesses. The market for agentic AI is projected for substantial expansion, with market research firm Grand View Research estimating it could reach $24.5 billion by 2030. Despite this optimistic outlook, Lane cautioned that the monetization of AI in the retail sector is still in its early stages, suggesting that the full impact on stock prices may take time to materialize.
"Every client is exploring agentic commerce, and Shopify has made it easy to adopt, with a 'flick of a button' to enable," Lane noted. He described it as an emerging channel that merchants are still navigating, with agent-driven traffic being challenging to measure and certain product categories being less suitable for this new approach compared to traditional retail or consumer goods. Nevertheless, Lane concluded that "AI adoption is real" and has the potential to drive considerable upside for Shopify's stock in the future.
Stifel's positive outlook aligns with the broader Wall Street consensus. Currently, 36 out of 47 analysts covering Shopify maintain a 'buy' or 'strong buy' rating on the stock. It is worth noting that Shopify shares have experienced a 23% decline year-to-date in 2026.
