The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market faces ongoing instability, potentially for months, as QatarEnergy, one of the world's leading producers, continues to withhold shipments to Italy. This disruption stems from extensive war damage to crucial energy facilities in Qatar, highlighting the lasting impact of regional hostilities.
Edison SpA, the Italian subsidiary of French utility EDF, recently announced that QatarEnergy has prolonged its force majeure declaration, delaying an additional four LNG cargoes destined for Italy’s Adriatic LNG terminal until early September. This latest extension brings the total number of affected cargoes between April and early September to 21, equating to roughly 2.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas, as confirmed by Edison in a statement on Tuesday.
![Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy Saad Sherida al-Kaabi]()
Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy Saad Sherida al-Kaabi speaks during a press conference in Doha on June 22, 2026.
Karim Jaafar | Afp | Getty Images
The original force majeure declaration by QatarEnergy in March followed a series of Iranian attacks on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure. These attacks were reportedly in retaliation to strikes from the U.S. and Israel. Specifically, Iranian missile strikes severely damaged two LNG-producing trains at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export facility. This incident, occurring in March, reduced Qatar’s production by 12.8 million tons annually, representing about 17% of its total LNG exports.
The protracted conflict has significantly impacted QatarEnergy's long-term contract with Edison, which involves an annual supply of 6.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Italy over 25 years. Despite the shortfall, Edison has managed to secure alternative supplies for 14 of the 21 delayed cargoes, assuring that its end customers will not experience disruptions.
Qatar’s state-owned energy giant estimates the damage at Ras Laffan could result in a staggering $20 billion annually in lost revenue, with repairs potentially taking up to five years. QatarEnergy has not responded to requests for comment regarding the situation.
Market analysts caution that natural gas prices are likely to persist above pre-war levels, even as LNG and oil tankers, previously idled around the Persian Gulf, gradually resume transit under a 60-day ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Laura Page, an analyst at Kpler, noted, “Continued uncertainty surrounding negotiations throughout the 60-day implementation period should preserve some residual risk premium.” She also pointed to robust Chinese LNG demand, active buying from Thailand, and nuclear outages in South Korea as factors contributing to tight prompt fundamentals ahead of the peak summer season.
Reflecting these market concerns, August future prices for JKM, the benchmark for LNG delivered to Northeast Asia, stood at $15.521 per million British thermal units on June 24, a notable increase from the pre-war level of $10.697 recorded on February 27.
Further underscoring the persistent risks in global energy flows, Kpler reported that at least two QatarEnergy-linked LNG carriers altered course near the Strait of Hormuz last week. This occurred after Iranian forces issued warnings against unauthorized shipping corridors and subsequently struck two vessels traversing Omani waters, emphasizing the volatile geopolitical landscape impacting critical energy supply routes.
