Bitcoin’s value is plummeting, with traders on prediction platforms like Kalshi forecasting new lows for 2026, potentially falling below $60,000. This sharp decline follows a recent sale by crypto treasury company Strategy and marks a significant downturn from Bitcoin’s all-time highs.
The cryptocurrency is already down over 45% from its October peak and is facing bearish sentiment, with some traders anticipating a drop below $50,000 this year. The chances of Bitcoin reaching six figures again in 2026 are also diminishing.
A visual representation of Bitcoin's digital currency.
Bitcoin prices have experienced a significant downturn this week, exacerbated by a recent sale of holdings by the cryptocurrency treasury company, Strategy. This sell-off has intensified concerns among traders about the digital asset's future trajectory, with many forecasting a slump to new lows for 2026.
Key Points:
Bitcoin's price has dropped following Strategy's partial sale of its bitcoin holdings.
Prediction markets indicate a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 in 2026, marking a new low for the year.
The cryptocurrency is currently down over 45% from its all-time high reached in October.
The leading cryptocurrency saw its value dip to levels not seen since early April on Tuesday. This decline was largely triggered by news that Strategy, a prominent crypto treasury company, had divested a portion of its bitcoin reserves. The move has fueled anxieties in what is increasingly being termed a "crypto winter."
Market sentiment, as reflected on the prediction market platform Kalshi, suggests a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Traders are assigning a nearly 80% probability that the flagship cryptocurrency will breach the $60,000 mark in 2026. Such a move would represent a new yearly low, surpassing the dip observed in February when Bitcoin briefly touched $60,062.
Furthermore, traders on Kalshi are also anticipating further price erosion, with a 52% chance that Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 this year. This would be a significant psychological barrier, as Bitcoin has not traded in the $40,000s since August 2024.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $66,500, marking a nearly 10% decline week-to-date. This brings its total decrease to over 45% from its peak of more than $120,000 in October. The outlook for Bitcoin reclaiming its previous highs also appears to be dimming, with traders on Kalshi giving only a 27% chance of the cryptocurrency reaching six figures again in 2026, a significant drop from nearly 50% odds in early May.
On another prediction platform, Polymarket, the likelihood of Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs in 2026 is estimated at a mere 12%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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