The Trump administration’s “Project Freedom” aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commerce by defending ships against Iranian attacks, with U.S. officials claiming early success in restoring safe passage.
However, defense and geopolitical experts remain deeply skeptical, arguing the operation fails to address the underlying risks and high insurance costs that deter shipping companies, further risking escalation with Iran.
Recent Iranian aggression, including missile attacks and vessel fires, underscores the ongoing dangers, suggesting that a broader political settlement, not military deterrence, is essential for long-term stability and commercial traffic normalization.
Despite the Trump administration's confident assertions that its new initiative, "Project Freedom," has successfully reopened the crucial Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, defense and geopolitical analysts are expressing profound skepticism.
This operation, designed to safeguard vessels from Iranian attacks, is seen by many experts not as a viable long-term solution but rather a high-risk gamble in a volatile region. They argue that the fundamental issue of ensuring safe passage and managing high insurance costs, which deter shipping companies, remains unaddressed.
Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a libertarian-leaning foreign policy think tank, bluntly stated, "In my view, it's not a solution at all." She emphasized that the operation fails to tackle the core problem: "the uncertainty about the safety of transit means that ship captains and shipping companies are hesitant to take the risk."
Conversely, the administration hails the immediate success of its day-old mission. Admiral Brad Cooper, leader of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), declared on Monday, "We've now opened a passage through the Strait of Hormuz to allow for the free flow of commerce to proceed." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this sentiment, boasting that two U.S. commercial ships, escorted by American destroyers, "have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear." Hegseth asserted, "We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact. They said they control the strait. They do not."
While no specific price tag or definitive timeline has been released, Hegseth described the mission as "focused in scope and temporary in duration." However, analysts interviewed by CNBC expressed doubts about whether "Project Freedom" offers either a short-term or long-term resolution to the chokehold on the strait – the world's primary oil pathway and the epicenter of the ongoing conflict with Iran. Prior to the war, this narrow waterway facilitated the transit of 20% of global oil leaving the Persian Gulf.
These experts contend that the defensive operation does not adequately deter Iran's capacity to threaten vessels, making the journey prohibitively risky for most. Furthermore, such military actions could exacerbate tensions with Iran, potentially prolonging diplomatic efforts – which many believe are the only true path to restoring pre-war commercial traffic levels.
Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, summarized the sentiment, stating, "Project Freedom is unlikely to be a completely decisive solution to Gulf maritime insecurity, but rather a limited, high-risk deterrence experiment."
What is Project Freedom?
President Donald Trump initially announced "Project Freedom" via a Truth Social post on Sunday evening. He pledged U.S. assurance to nations whose ships were stranded by the conflict, promising to "guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways."
CENTCOM's statement detailed the deployment of significant military assets, including "guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members" to support the operation.
This new mission follows "Operation Epic Fury," which began on February 28 with U.S. action against Iran and, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has now "concluded." Rubio affirmed that the objectives of that operation, including preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, were met. However, Reuters reported, citing intelligence sources, that Iran's timeline for acquiring such a weapon remains unchanged since the previous summer.
"Project Freedom" is characterized as a defensive mission, yet it notably avoids individual ship escorts, which Kavanagh deems "very expensive and resource intensive." She argued that such a measure would need to be "permanent, until you have a political solution... So it's really not feasible." Instead, Admiral Cooper described the current setup as "a much broader defensive package than you would have ever if you were just escorting."
Cooper also claimed that the U.S. has encouraged numerous ships and companies to resume traffic, stating, "This news has been quite enthusiastically received, and we're already beginning to see movement." Indeed, a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel operated by a Maersk subsidiary did successfully transit the strait under U.S. military protection on Monday. Nevertheless, this single passage falls far short of the over 100 daily vessels, including dozens of oil tankers, that once navigated the strait.
The current operation launched more than three weeks after Trump initiated a naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, aimed at intensifying economic pressure on Tehran by restricting access to Iranian ports. This blockade, still active, was imposed after initial peace talks failed and amid frustrations over low traffic despite a fragile ceasefire. The effective closure of this vital waterway has triggered a historic global energy crisis, driving up oil and gas prices and disrupting supplies of fuels, fertilizers, and other crucial commodities.
Iran's Asymmetric Leverage in the Strait
Fernando Ferreira, director of Rapidan Energy Group's geopolitical risk service, believes that "Project Freedom is unlikely to be sufficient to start the process of normalizing Hormuz transit." He pointed out that while the U.S. can offer guidance on mine-free sea lanes and air support, Iran retains a "clearly asymmetric capability" to assert control in the region. Consequently, "Companies are going to remain reluctant... at least until there is a clear demonstration that Iran no longer possesses those capabilities."
Kennedy concurred, adding, "Until ceasefire negotiations resolve, the core disputes around sanctions relief, Iran's enrichment capacity, and security guarantees, most operators will probably consider Hormuz transit as an extreme-risk regardless of U.S. naval presence."
New Attacks Threaten Ceasefire
Iran has responded to "Project Freedom" with renewed aggression. The United Arab Emirates reported ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone attacks from Iran on Monday, resulting in three injuries. Admiral Cooper confirmed that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps "launched multiple cruise missiles, drones and small boats at ships that we are protecting."
Additionally, a South Korean-operated vessel in the Strait of Hormuz caught fire on Monday, an incident President Trump later attributed to an Iranian attack.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stark warning to Washington, urging against further military action. In an X post, he wrote, "Events in Hormuz make clear that there's no military solution to a political crisis... The U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers." He controversially labeled the initiative "Project Deadlock."
Despite this escalation, the U.S. maintains its ceasefire with Iran is intact. Kavanagh suggests that both sides have incentives to preserve the fragile truce. However, Kennedy cautions that sustained peace may be impossible if attacks intensify. "Maintaining safe passage would require indefinite convoy operations, expanded base defense and acceptance of persistent pressure from Iran, including direct threats to U.S. naval assets," he explained. "If Iranian attacks intensify or U.S. vessels are struck, Washington would face a choice between standing down the operation or escalating militarily." Ultimately, Kennedy concludes, "Project Freedom is tactically feasible but strategically, unlikely to restore confidence for commercial shipping over the long term without a broader political settlement."
