Traders on the Kalshi exchange are seeing significantly higher odds for AI firm Anthropic to announce its IPO this year, with probabilities climbing following reports of its planned IPO prospectus warnings about AI’s existential risks. Simultaneously, Anthropic is reportedly seeking a $2 trillion valuation and planning massive infrastructure investments.
This comes as the broader AI industry grapples with safety concerns, with competitors like OpenAI also citing such issues for potential IPO delays. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has also called for a slowdown in advanced AI development.
Traders on the Kalshi exchange are signaling a significantly increased probability of AI powerhouse Anthropic announcing its initial public offering (IPO) within the current year. This surge in optimism follows reports indicating that Anthropic plans to explicitly warn potential investors about the profound risks associated with its artificial intelligence models in its IPO prospectus.
Dario Amodei, co-founder and chief executive officer of Anthropic, during an interview on "The Circuit with Emily Chang" at Anthropic's headquarters in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, April 30, 2026.
Jason Henry | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The likelihood of Anthropic announcing an IPO before November has seen a substantial jump, climbing from a mere 4.7% on September 28th to 16% as of Wednesday afternoon. Looking further ahead, Kalshi traders are now pricing in over a 60% chance of an IPO announcement before December and a nearly 80% probability that it will occur before the end of January.
These contracts on Kalshi are designed to settle based on verified news reports and official company announcements regarding the timing of Anthropic's IPO.
The increased trading activity comes in the wake of a Reuters report, which revealed that Anthropic intends to alert investors in its IPO filing that its AI models pose a "catastrophic or existential risk to humanity." The report further elaborated on these warnings, citing that AI could potentially "resist shutdown," engage in information manipulation, or exhibit behaviors akin to "blackmail."
Anthropic, founded in 2021, had previously confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in June. The company is reportedly aiming for a staggering valuation of $2 trillion upon going public. Furthermore, Reuters indicated that Anthropic plans a significant investment of over $500 billion in cloud computing and other infrastructure over the coming year.
These heightened concerns about the potential dangers of advanced AI are echoing across the industry. Competitor OpenAI, for instance, has cited AI safety issues as a reason for its own expected IPO delay this year.
Notably, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently penned an essay advocating for a slowdown in the development of the most advanced AI models. This call for caution has garnered support from prominent figures in the tech world, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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