President Donald Trump anticipates a prompt conclusion to the war in Iran immediately following November’s midterm elections, predicting a significant decline in global oil prices thereafter. His comments come as regional tensions remain high, marked by recent drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s vital oil infrastructure and Houthi rebel advances in Yemen, which are increasingly threatening key international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf region.
President Donald Trump has voiced his expectation that the ongoing conflict in Iran will conclude shortly after the November midterm elections, a development he believes will trigger a substantial fall in global energy prices.
"I think very soon, I think it'll be right after the midterms, actually," Trump stated during a trip to Ireland when questioned by reporters about the Iran conflict's potential end. "I would say shortly, and oil will come tumbling down when that happens."
Despite Trump's optimistic outlook for a post-election peace dividend, oil markets experienced a mixed week. Prices retreated on Friday, with Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, settling down 2.8% at $104.61 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw a decline of 2.4% to settle at $100.05 per barrel. However, these pullbacks followed sharp weekly gains that had seen Brent peak near $108 and WTI exceed $104 earlier in the week.
The recent price fluctuations come amidst a backdrop of intense regional tensions. Iranian state media reported on upcoming diplomatic discussions, with Tehran scheduled to meet Gulf states in Oman to address the critical Strait of Hormuz. A potential agreement establishing an Iran-Oman shipping route through the strait is reportedly on the agenda for a meeting in Muscat.
However, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered a defiant message, asserting his country's resolve against external aggression. "Iran has successfully stood against Israel and the U.S.," Pezeshkian declared late Friday while addressing religious leaders in New Delhi, ahead of the BRICS Summit. "Since we are seeking truth and justice, we will not yield in front of bullying arrogance." These remarks followed earlier assertions by Trump that without U.S. military action, Iran would have posed a severe threat to Israel, the Middle East, and even American cities.
Saudi Pipeline Under Attack
Adding to regional instability, President Trump suggested Iran was likely behind recent drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's crucial East-West crude oil pipeline. "Well, I think they are. Probably, they are," he responded when asked by a reporter.
Saudi Arabia confirmed on Friday that it had shut down the pipeline as a precautionary measure following multiple drone assaults launched from Iraq. The attacks on Thursday morning targeted the pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, resulting in fires and some damage, with several people sustaining injuries.
The East-West pipeline, boasting a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, is strategically vital, allowing Saudi Arabia to divert crude oil exports away from the Persian Gulf amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency teams were deployed to assess and secure the pipeline, and Trump confirmed he had discussed the incident with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Houthis "Don't Want to Fight"
In a surprising revelation, Trump also mentioned that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels had engaged in communication with his administration. "The Houthis called us and they don't want to fight with us," Trump stated. "They let us know, they don't want to fight with us. They don't want me to go after them."
This dialogue comes amid reports of significant Houthi advances, including their purported seizure of Yemen's strategic Perim Island and the Red Sea port city of Mokha on Friday. These developments, if confirmed, represent a major setback for Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and could grant Iran and its proxies increased control over two of the world's most critical oil choke points: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.
Perim Island, a small landmass, effectively divides the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and broader global markets. Concerns are mounting over the Houthi's push toward this strait and the potential ramifications for international trade, particularly if the group escalates threats or attacks on Red Sea shipping. Reports later Friday indicated that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince personally urged President Trump for U.S. military intervention in response to these advances.
