Mississippi Senate Race: Colom Edges Ahead of Hyde-Smith in Tight Contest; Legal Battles Loom

In a stunning turn of events for a traditionally red state, Democratic nominee Scott Colom holds a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race. The race is so close that Hyde-Smith's campaign has initiated steps that could lead to legal challenges over ballot counting, particularly concerning provisional ballots. The outcome remains uncertain, with final results not expected until next week.

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., and Democratic Mississippi Senate candidate Scott Colom.

Daniel Heuer | Bloomberg | Brad Vest | Getty Images

An ultra-tight Mississippi Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom could end with one of the biggest shocks in a midterm election cycle already chock full of stunning defeats of GOP candidates.

With Colom in the lead by just 1,813 votes on Thursday, Hyde-Smith's campaign set the stage for a potential legal battle over ballots by demanding in a letter to county commissioners and circuit clerks in all 82 Mississippi counties that they immediately separate all provisional ballots cast in the election from regular and absentee ballots.

"These measures are necessary to ensure that each affidavit ballot's eligibility for counting and ultimate disposition can be verified," the letter said.

Lawyers for Colom's campaign responded with a letter of their own to the counties, calling the Republican's demands "unlawful and extraordinary measures."

"Those demands have no basis in Mississippi law, and if you depart from ordinary election procedures as you have been asked to do, you will violate Mississippi voters' rights and Mississippi election law," they said.

Provisional ballots, which are also known as affidavit ballots, are cast by a voter whose name does not appear on the poll book, who does not present an acceptable photo ID, or in several other situations. The ballot is then placed in a sealed envelope and later examined by election officials to see if it can be cast, or the voter can return with a photo ID or evidence within five business days to show they are entitled to cast the ballot.

When the letters were sent, Colom had 49.04% of the counted ballots, compared to 48.85% for Hyde-Smith, with an estimated more than 95% of the votes in, according to the Associated Press. Colom's lead ticked up slightly late Thursday afternoon to 1,813 votes out of a total of 951,744 counted as of 6:17 p.m. ET, the AP said. Ty Pinkins, an independent candidate, had 20,007 votes, or 2.1% of the total count.

A final result may not be available until next week because more ballots can still arrive and be counted. Mississippi's election procedures do not have an automatic recount provision.

"Absolutely, I didn't think it would be this close," said Brian Anderson, a political science professor at the Mississippi University for Women in Columbus. Anderson said that before the election, he thought Colom, a 43-year-old district attorney, might get into position to lose by just 3 or 4 percentage points, which would have been a very solid showing in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982. "I'm much more surprised" now that Colom has a chance to win, Anderson said.

If Colom defeats Hyde-Smith, 67, he would be the first Black senator from Mississippi since the post-Civil War Reconstruction Era. "The Democrats have struggled here to create a pipeline of candidates," Anderson said. A Colom win "would galvanize the Democratic Party in a way it has not been," he said.

Neither candidate's campaign immediately responded to requests for comment from CNBC. Hyde-Smith's X account, in a post Thursday afternoon, said, "Cindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years."

Cindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years. We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory. Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must have the time to complete that work and ensure every lawful ballot is accurately counted and every Mississippian's voice is heard.

— U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (@cindyhydesmith) February 22, 2026

The post added, "We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out every stop, and we are prepared. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to keep fighting for Mississippi values."

Also on Thursday, the Republican National Committee sent a text message blast to subscribers, asking for donations of $25 by citing the hyper-close race in Mississippi and saying Hyde-Smith needed support for monitoring ballot reviews. "Mississippi is the firewall, and this race is our line in the sand," the message said.

In a pair of ironic twists, if Colom wins, his victory could be attributed in some ways to actions taken by two Republicans: President Donald Trump and Hyde-Smith herself. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, whom Trump appointed, wrote the court's 5-4 majority ruling in June that upheld a Mississippi law allowing mail-in absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received within five business days. Those ballots could provide Colom a margin of victory. There are also an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 provisional ballots that require verification of eligibility to vote.

A lawyer for the Republican National Committee, whose lawsuit argued federal law barred counting votes received after Election Day, noted in a brief to the Supreme Court, "Democratic voters tend to mail their ballots later on average than Republican voters, which results in late-arriving ballots favoring Democratic candidates." Trump at the time of the Supreme Court ruling called it "a tremendous loss" for voters' rights.

Hyde-Smith was appointed to her Senate seat in 2018 after the resignation of Thad Cochran and later that year won a special election for the seat. She was elected to a full term in 2020. In 2023, she effectively blocked Colom's nomination by then-President Joe Biden to a post as a federal judge for the Northern District of Mississippi. Colom's nomination had the support of Mississippi's other Republican senator, Roger Wicker, and two former GOP governors.

Hyde-Smith said she opposed Colom's nomination for reasons that included his purported support for transgender students participating in girls' sports and because his campaign for district attorney had allegedly received money from billionaire George Soros. Colom, in an April 10, 2023, letter to Hyde-Smith, said he was unaware before his hometown newspaper reported it that Soros had donated to a political action committee that had supported his campaign. He also wrote that he was not sure why Hyde-Smith had suggested he "opposed legislation to protect female athletes." Colom concluded the letter by promising to be guided by the law, not his personal views on public policy, if he were confirmed as a judge. "I hope you will reconsider your views about my nomination," he wrote.

Hyde-Smith did not reconsider her views and maintained her block on the nomination. Colom announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Senate in September 2025 and recently told CNN, "Me not having a federal judgeship is not a motivating factor for me at all" in running.

Anderson said Hyde-Smith ran "a low-visibility campaign," at least compared to Colom's, and that she focused on voters who traditionally would be expected to support her. Hyde-Smith refused to debate Colom several times. Colom "knows how to speak to people's interests, and Hyde-Smith was all about values, which is great for a lot of people, but it's all about the interests right now," Anderson said. Those interests include concerns about affordability, the Iran war and corruption. Colom is "bringing up all those," Anderson said.

Anderson noted that Colom's campaign had pounced on a remark Hyde-Smith made during a Feb. 22 interview with a local television outlet. In the interview, Hyde-Smith answered a question about rising beef prices by saying, "You know, there so many proteins to choose from." Colom's campaign featured a video clip of that remark in an ad featuring people reacting incredulously to Hyde-Smith's suggestion. "Pick another protein?" one woman said in the ad. "She done lost her d--- mind. I'd rather pick another senator."