Stock Futures Steady as Investors Weigh Iran Tensions and Economic Data

Published: August 11, 2026

Stock futures showed a mixed performance early Tuesday as global markets navigated geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously awaiting key inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.14%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.38%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remained little changed. This followed a relatively flat performance on Monday for the S&P 500, as uncertainty in the Middle East continued to cast a shadow over investor sentiment.

In Asia, markets presented a varied picture. South Korea's Kospi closed 0.73% higher, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.19%. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dipped 1.03%, and the mainland CSI 300 fell 0.79%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

The central focus remains on the diplomatic efforts concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has indicated progress toward a deal with Oman to reopen the vital waterway, but Tehran has been hesitant to engage in direct negotiations with the U.S. without certain conditions being met. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that negotiations are impossible as long as the U.S. violates a memorandum of understanding and fails to compensate Iran.

This geopolitical uncertainty has directly impacted oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 5.1% higher on Monday at $82.13 a barrel, and international benchmark Brent crude climbed 5% to $87.72.

Looking ahead, investors are bracing for crucial economic indicators. The July consumer price report, due Wednesday, and the producer price index, out Thursday, will be closely watched. These reports come in the wake of a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, which has complicated the Federal Reserve's outlook and raised questions about the strength of the U.S. economy.

The potential for higher oil prices, coupled with slowing job growth, presents a challenging scenario for the Fed. While the jobs report has fueled expectations that the Fed might hold interest rates steady, elevated inflation concerns persist. Fed funds futures traders now estimate a roughly 50% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67% a week prior, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Brent Schutte, CIO at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, commented, "The silver lining of a weaker July labor report is that it likely gives policymakers some breathing room to keep interest rates steady." He added that given the Fed's historical prioritization of the labor market, caution against further rate hikes seems plausible despite current inflation levels.

In corporate news, healthcare products company Cardinal Health and sneaker manufacturer On Holdings are scheduled to release their earnings on Tuesday morning. Results from Cava Group, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer are expected in the afternoon.

European Stocks Inch Higher Amid Mixed Sentiment

European stocks opened marginally higher on Tuesday, with oil and gas stocks leading the gains. However, overall investor optimism regarding an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appeared to be waning.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index traded just above the flat line, with regional bourses and sectors showing a mixed performance. London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40, and Germany's DAX were all flat in early trade. Oil and gas stocks saw a 1.1% increase, while travel and leisure stocks lagged, falling 0.8%.

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Oil Prices Fluctuate Amid Shifting Hormuz Deal Prospects

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Gold Prices Rise Driven by Asian Demand

Spot gold prices increased by 0.51% to $4,411 an ounce, with silver also seeing a jump of over 1%. Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices not only to traditional drivers like inflation and geopolitical uncertainty but also to structural shifts in Asian demand. The expansion of gold trading infrastructure and increasing investment products in Asia suggest a potential shift in the global gold market's center of gravity eastward.

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Chinese Equities Viewed as Attractive by UBS

UBS Global Wealth Management considers Chinese equities attractive from a risk-reward perspective. The firm points to cheap valuations and renewed investor interest, particularly in semiconductor and domestically oriented companies, as reasons for the market's appeal, especially as investors rotate from outperforming South Korean and Taiwanese markets.

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