Erdogan’s Trump Card: How a Personal Connection Could Shape NATO and Turkey’s Defense Deals

In the high-stakes world of international diplomacy, personal relationships can often wield surprising influence. Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be leveraging his remarkably warm ties with U.S. President Donald Trump, potentially securing an advantage for Ankara and even a significant defense deal.

While Trump has openly criticized and often belittled many of his European counterparts expected at the summit, Erdogan has managed to draw the U.S. leader to Ankara. Trump himself acknowledged this, stating, "I would not have gone for most people... But he called me up. He said: 'Please, I have it in Turkey. You got to be there. The United States has to be in there.' And so I'm going out of respect to President Erdogan." This personal appeal underscores the unique dynamic between the two leaders.

Erdogan's ability to secure Trump's attendance is crucial, especially as the U.S. president has repeatedly threatened to reduce America's commitment to NATO and withdraw forces from Europe. Trump's presence helps avert the potential disarray his absence could have caused within the alliance.

Trump's admiration for Erdogan, whom he has called "a hell of a leader," is well-documented. This contrasts sharply with his criticisms of other NATO members regarding their defense spending and their perceived lack of support for U.S. foreign policy initiatives. The U.S. president has frequently lauded the pledge by NATO countries to increase defense spending, viewing it as a personal success.

Adding a potential sweetener to this diplomatic engagement, Trump has hinted at a significant defense announcement during his visit. This could involve the sale of F-35 fighter jets and related jet engines, a deal that has been stalled for years due to Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. Trump's affinity for what are often described as "strongmen" leaders, a category into which Erdogan, who has been in power for over a decade, fits, seems to be a consistent pattern in his foreign policy approach.

Philip Gordon, formerly a national security adviser, noted, "His relationship with Erdogan, which is pretty strong, is consistent with what seems to be a pattern of his preference. It has often been pointed out he seems to have better relationships with adversaries and autocrats, and he certainly says nicer things about them than with allies." Erdogan, he added, is "taking full advantage of it."

Erdogan's Strategic Play: Sidestepping Biden for Trump's Favor

Trump's anticipated bilateral meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit marks a significant moment. He will be the first U.S. president to visit Turkey since Barack Obama in 2015. This stands in stark contrast to the approach of Democratic President Joe Biden, who had maintained a distance from Erdogan, citing concerns over democratic backsliding and Turkey's close ties with Russia. Human rights organizations and opposition parties have indeed accused Erdogan of eroding democratic principles and restricting freedom of expression in Turkey.

Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute observed that Erdogan and Trump "clicked" personally during Trump's first term. This rapport was further highlighted when Erdogan declined an invitation from Biden in 2024 to visit the U.S., a move seen by some as a signal to Trump about Erdogan's perceived political future. Cagaptay suggested, "That was Erdogan's way of signaling to Trump, 'Hey, you are going to probably win the elections.' I think Trump saw that as a giant gesture."

A Potential Windfall: Jet Engines and F-35s on the Horizon

During a recent discussion with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump was directly asked about bringing a "big gift bag for Erdogan," specifically mentioning the F-110 jet engines and F-35 fighter jets that Turkey desires. Trump's affirmative response, "Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I'm going to probably do something that's going to make him very happy," coupled with his earlier suggestion that the U.S. might resume F-35 sales to Turkey, signals a potential shift.

Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 following its purchase of Russia's S-400 missile defense systems, which U.S. officials feared could compromise the stealth fighter's technology by allowing Moscow to gather intelligence. While there is significant bipartisan opposition in the U.S. Congress, particularly from Republicans like Sen. Jim Risch, to selling F-35s while Turkey retains the S-400s, the Biden administration has been taking steps to facilitate the sale of F-110 jet engines. These engines are crucial for Turkey's indigenously developed KAAN fighter jets. The State Department has moved to bypass congressional objections for over $700 million in jet engine sales, a move that has drawn criticism from lawmakers like Rep. Gregory Meeks for its lack of transparency and justification.

Beyond defense, the U.S.-Turkey relationship has seen other positive developments, including the dropping of a major case against Turkey's state-owned Halkbank by the Trump administration's Department of Justice earlier this year. Halkbank had been accused of facilitating Iran's evasion of U.S. sanctions.

The Power of Personal Diplomacy: Erdogan and Trump's 'Telephone Diplomacy'

The appointment of Tom Barrack, a close friend and longtime ally of Trump, as the U.S. ambassador to Turkey further solidified these connections. Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations, described Barrack as playing a "crucial role as a facilitator in the relationship."

Erdogan and Trump have maintained frequent communication, discussing critical regional issues such as Syria and Gaza. Turkey's participation in Trump's "Board of Peace" initiative related to the Gaza ceasefire is another example of their collaboration. Trump notably claimed that Erdogan heeded his request to stay out of the war in Iran, although Turkey's involvement was never strongly indicated.

Even during a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump publicly praised Erdogan, urging Netanyahu to be "reasonable" despite Ankara's strained relations with Jerusalem. This highlights Trump's consistent public endorsement of Erdogan.

Reflecting on their close bond, Erdogan recounted an anecdote after a meeting with Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague last year, emphasizing the swiftness of their communication. "With my friend Trump, we are opening the door to a new era in Turkish-American relations," Erdogan stated. "The process of telephone diplomacy between us has never exceeded 24 hours so far. When we call, the other side responds within 24 hours." This personal rapport and open line of communication give Erdogan a unique leverage point as the NATO summit approaches.