As airfare continues to climb amid the Iran war, prospective travelers are facing a difficult question: Should they buy their plane ticket now or wait to see if prices improve? Travel experts overwhelmingly recommend booking sooner rather than later, citing the uncertainty surrounding the conflict's trajectory and potential for further price increases.
The ongoing conflict, which began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, has triggered an oil supply shock, significantly impacting jet fuel costs. Airlines are responding by raising ticket prices, increasing baggage fees, adding fuel surcharges, and even cutting flight schedules to manage these higher expenses.
According to Kayak data, the average round-trip domestic flight cost $361 as of April 20, up 8% from $335 before the war and 19% from $304 a year ago. International fares have seen an even more dramatic increase, reaching $1,097 – a 42% jump from $774 on February 23 and a 14% rise year-over-year.
Jet fuel now accounts for 20-30% of airlines' operating costs, making it a key driver of airfare. The price of U.S. jet fuel has surged 82% since the start of the Iran war, reaching $4.56 per gallon on Wednesday, up from $2.50 on February 27.
Experts suggest the "Goldilocks" window for booking domestic flights is three to seven months in advance, while international travelers should aim for four to ten months. Monitoring prices and booking when a good deal appears is crucial, especially considering the potential for continued disruption and higher costs. Delaying a purchase in hopes of a quick resolution to the conflict is considered a risky strategy.
While the fall shoulder season (September/October) may offer savings, experts advise against waiting indefinitely, as it could take months for the situation to normalize even if the conflict ends soon. The potential for rebuilding oil infrastructure and addressing production delays adds to the uncertainty.
