Bitcoin saw a significant 12.7% surge in April, its best month since April 2025, driven primarily by leveraged trading in derivatives markets.
However, crypto data provider CryptoQuant warns that weak spot demand during this period indicates the rally’s vulnerability, suggesting it’s fueled by speculation rather than fundamental accumulation.
Bitcoin experienced a notable surge in April, marking its best monthly performance since April 2025 with a 12.7% gain. This positive momentum followed a modest 2% rise in March, breaking a streak of five down months. However, underlying indicators suggest the rally's sustainability is in question.
According to crypto data provider CryptoQuant, the upward price movement was primarily fueled by leveraged trading activity in the derivatives market, particularly perpetual futures. Concurrently, demand for spot Bitcoin contracted throughout April, signaling a potential vulnerability in the rally.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, highlighted this divergence, stating that rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand indicates that price appreciation is driven by speculation rather than fundamental accumulation. Historically, such configurations have lacked the structural foundation for sustained price gains and often resolve in a correction once futures positioning unwinds.
The shifting landscape for crypto exchanges, which were initially built around spot trading, is becoming evident. Derivatives, including perpetual futures and prediction markets, are emerging as more reliable engines for steady revenue compared to spot trading, which depends on consistent accumulation cycles that are not always present.
The current market environment for crypto has been characterized by uneven and reactive demand, largely influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. interest rate expectations and geopolitical events, rather than organic buyer demand. The lack of significant catalysts, with regulatory progress on key legislation like the CLARITY Act remaining stalled, further contributes to this uncertainty.
Moreno drew parallels to a similar pattern observed at the beginning of the 2022 bear market, which was followed by a prolonged price decline. While acknowledging that the market conditions in 2022 were different, marked by aggressive rate hikes and industry-wide contagion, the current trend carries downside risk if the broader market remains in a bearish phase.
Despite the concerns, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs totaled $1.9 billion in April, and Bitcoin treasury companies increased their holdings by approximately 58,000 coins. Bitcoin reached an April high of around $79,500 but saw mostly lower lows for the remainder of the month. As of early May, it was trading just over 1% shy of its April peak.
