Bitcoin’s recent price surge could mark the beginning of a significant bullish move, according to expert analysis. Three key factors support this outlook: a return of successful bullish chart patterns, the weekly chart’s strong resemblance to the start of the 2023 advance, and the enduring long-term uptrend coupled with improving momentum indicators, including a notable 20% monthly gain in August.
Bitcoin's recent price surge could signal the onset of a more substantial bullish trend, according to expert analysis. (For a full chart breakdown, refer to the accompanying video, if available.) Here are three compelling reasons why this could be just the beginning of a significant upward movement:
1. Bullish Patterns Are Back in Play
Bitcoin successfully leveraged a bullish formation this past summer, culminating in a notable rally in August. This development is crucial because, between late 2025 and early 2026, three prior bullish formations failed to deliver any meaningful follow-through, a classic hallmark of a downtrend where positive patterns struggle to gain traction. Conversely, sustainable uptrends are characterized by successful bullish breakouts, where prices push through resistance levels, leading to further upside momentum. While Bitcoin has already seen a considerable rebound from its summer lows, this shift in pattern behavior suggests we might still be in the nascent stages of a broader recovery.
2. Weekly Chart Echoes the Start of the 2023 Advance
On a larger scale, Bitcoin's price action throughout 2026 bears a striking resemblance to its trajectory from 2022 into 2023. During that period, Bitcoin broke through key resistance as its weekly moving averages began to turn higher. These moving averages, which had previously acted as declining resistance, eventually flipped to become support—a clear indicator of an asset transitioning from a downtrend to an uptrend. Significantly, the bullish breakout in early 2023 was merely the prelude to a much larger advance that continued until late 2025. Bitcoin is exhibiting similar price dynamics today, hinting at a potential repeat of that robust performance.
3. Long-Term Uptrend Intact with Improving Momentum
Examining the very long-term chart reveals that Bitcoin's latest resurgence originated near a critical rising trendline that dates back to 2017. There have been three previous instances where Bitcoin pulled back to this trendline, and each occasion was followed by a substantial rally in the subsequent months. Concurrently, the August rally delivered an impressive monthly gain of approximately 20%. Such significant monthly gains have been conspicuously absent during Bitcoin's weaker periods. The return of a 20% monthly increase after a prolonged hiatus could be another strong signal that momentum is improving not just in the short term, but for a sustainable period ahead.
Frank Cappelleri is the founder and president of CappThesis, an independent research firm specializing in time-tested chart and statistical analysis for active investors. He brings 25 years of Wall Street experience as an equity sales trader, technical analyst, research sales specialist, and desk strategist.
DISCLOSURE: All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of CNBC, its parent company, or affiliates. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. It is general in nature and does not consider individual circumstances. Always seek advice from a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
