Amidst a significant surge in U.S. diesel prices, which on Friday climbed above $6 per gallon for the first time ever—a staggering 60% increase year-over-year—Morgan Stanley analysts are spotlighting the enhanced economic appeal of Tesla's electric semi-truck. Global refining capacity disruptions, exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, are driving these fuel cost escalations.
Andrew Percoco, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, noted to clients, "$6 Diesel...Enter Tesla Semi," underscoring the critical market shift. Tesla CEO Elon Musk previously confirmed that production of the electric semi has commenced, with plans to integrate self-driving capabilities by early 2027.
Morgan Stanley's in-depth analysis reveals compelling benefits for an autonomous electric semi. Such a vehicle is projected to cut costs by 20% per mile compared to a human-operated diesel truck. Furthermore, it could more than double the annual mileage per truck, reaching over 215,000 miles—a 133% increase from current levels. This efficiency translates into a dramatic surge in annual profit per truck, excluding overhead, from approximately $37,000 for a diesel counterpart to about $202,000, representing a more than 400% jump.
Percoco further estimated that Tesla could generate between $12,000 and $18,000 monthly per truck from its autonomous driving software. While Musk conceded that Tesla Semis would constitute a "very small percentage" of the company's total fleet by the end of this year, the long-term financial prospects appear robust. Morgan Stanley maintains an "equal-weight" rating on Tesla, with a price target of $400, suggesting a 10% upside from its recent closing price of $363.56.
