Robinhood’s prediction market, Rothera, is poised for a significant revenue surge this football season, according to Piper Sandler. The joint venture with Susquehanna has gained CFTC approval for football-related contracts.
Analysts estimate a substantial shift of volume from competitors like Kalshi to Rothera, driven by the popularity of American football. This is expected to translate into strong revenue growth for Robinhood in the latter half of the year.
READ MORE FROM BENZINGA
Robinhood is gearing up for a significant boost in its prediction market revenue as the upcoming football season kicks off next week, according to a recent analysis by Piper Sandler.
Building on the explosive volume seen during the World Cup, analysts anticipate similarly strong performance for the NFL and NCAA Football seasons. "Given Kalshi & HOOD's US-centric user base, and the large gap in popularity between Soccer and Football in the US, we view the explosive World Cup volumes as a leading indicator of what's to come -- the NFL/[NCAA Football] season should be a significant catalyst for HOOD's 3Q26 and 4Q26 prediction market revenue," stated analyst Patrick Moley.
The driving force behind this optimism is Rothera, Robinhood's joint venture with Susquehanna, which launched in June. This derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has received CFTC approval to offer football-related contracts, including those covering wins and point spreads.
Piper Sandler's outlook is further bolstered by the observation that Rothera is already making inroads against competitors. Moley estimates that approximately 23% of prediction market volume has migrated from Kalshi to Rothera since its launch in June. "Robinhood's shift to Rothera has accelerated the decline in its share of Kalshi's volumes," Moley noted. He highlighted that Robinhood users, who previously constituted 22% to 30% of Kalshi's football season volume last year, now represent a much smaller share as Kalshi focuses on its own user acquisition.
The World Cup engagement significantly boosted Robinhood's prediction market volumes, with an 88% average monthly increase between June and August compared to the previous period. Piper Sandler projects that from September through December, Robinhood users will trade approximately 29.7 billion event contracts, generating around $320 million in revenue, equating to an annualized run rate of $960 million.
Looking ahead, while football was a dominant force on Kalshi in the 2025 season, accounting for 42% of its total volume, Moley anticipates a more diversified contract mix on Kalshi this year. Major sports constituted only 54% of Kalshi's volume in August 2026, a notable decrease from its peak of 83% in November 2025, indicating a broader range of events available on prediction platforms.
