Goldman Sachs identifies Asian currencies that are set to benefit significantly from the global AI boom, including the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, largely due to their ties to semiconductor exports and AI supply chains. Conversely, currencies like the Thai baht, Philippine peso, and Indonesian rupiah are expected to underperform due to vulnerability to energy costs and policy uncertainties. China’s yuan also stands out, appreciating against the dollar amidst strong high-tech manufacturing performance.
According to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs, Asia's dynamic currency market is increasingly driven by the booming artificial intelligence sector. Currencies intricately linked to semiconductor exports and the expansive AI supply chain — specifically the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, and Malaysian ringgit — have demonstrated superior performance compared to their regional counterparts. These beneficiaries stand in stark contrast to currencies more susceptible to escalating energy costs, such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee.
While the U.S. dollar has broadly strengthened throughout the year due to higher oil prices, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, the stability of the Chinese yuan, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Goldman Sachs anticipates this significant divergence within Asian currencies will persist as long as robust AI investment continues. The U.S. dollar index has already seen a nearly 3% ascent this year, underscoring the macro environment.
Goldman Sachs highlights two primary forces shaping Asian macro markets this year: the energy supply shock and the unprecedented AI-related investment surge. Among its strongest bullish calls is South Korea, where AI-driven semiconductor exports have propelled the current account surplus to unprecedented levels. Economists at the bank project this surplus will almost double to approximately $300 billion this year, accounting for a substantial 13.9% of the nation's GDP. Despite initial foreign equity selling that impacted the won earlier in the year, Goldman notes that these outflows have abated, allowing the currency's robust external fundamentals to reassert themselves and paving the way for a rally.
Taiwan also emerges as a highly favored market. Goldman Sachs forecasts continued outperformance for the Taiwan dollar, propelled by soaring semiconductor exports contributing to one of Asia's largest trade surpluses. The bank projects Taiwan's current account surplus to hit an impressive 25% of GDP this year, with exports having expanded at a remarkable 40% to 70% pace for much of 2026 (a future-looking projection that implies the report covers forward guidance). Despite expectations for policymakers to maintain unchanged interest rates, strong technology exports and substantial U.S. dollar deposits are expected to provide ongoing support for the currency.
China's yuan is another standout. Uniquely among Asian currencies, it has appreciated against the greenback this year, defying the broader dollar strength. Goldman analysts observe that China's economy is receiving a significant boost from its high-tech manufacturing and related sectors, even as activity in the broader economy remains somewhat subdued. Goldman maintains its 12-month forecast for USD/CNY at 6.50, arguing that the yuan remains undervalued. The combination of strong exports and Beijing's strategic push to internationalize the yuan is expected to underpin further gains.
However, not all technology-linked currencies are poised for uniform outperformance. Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral stance on the Singapore dollar. While resilient AI-led growth and contained inflation are supportive of the economy, the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) historically unchanged policy leaves limited scope for significant currency appreciation. It's noted, however, that the MAS made a surprise move on Monday to tighten its monetary policy.
Conversely, Goldman Sachs holds bearish views on the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah. Thailand's currency faces pressure from declining gold prices and lower real interest rates. Indonesia, despite implementing measures to attract foreign capital, continues to contend with concerns regarding policy uncertainty and governance. The Philippine peso is also expected to remain highly sensitive to elevated oil prices, given the country's substantial reliance on imported energy.
Overall, Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish three-month outlook on the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, and Malaysian ringgit. The bank's bearish views persist for the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah. While the Indian rupee has experienced pressure this year and isn't primarily an "AI play," Goldman believes that recent measures by the Reserve Bank of India to attract foreign capital, coupled with relatively lower oil prices, should ultimately provide support for the currency. The Malaysian ringgit also earns a bullish forecast, with resilient AI-driven growth, robust exports, and continued foreign direct investment anticipated to bolster its value.
