The Strait of Hormuz is facing a ‘worst-case scenario’ for oil tankers as Iran intensifies its attacks on ships, according to maritime risk CEO Dimitris Maniatis. At least nine vessels have been targeted since July 6, leading to crew concerns and a significant reduction in traffic through the vital waterway. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military actions and threats to alternative shipping routes like the Red Sea.
The strategic Strait of Hormuz has devolved into a 'worst-case scenario' for oil tankers, with maritime risk expert Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, warning of heightened dangers due to escalating Iranian attacks on shipping vessels. In a recent Lloyd's List Intelligence briefing, Maniatis stated that the volume of transits through the vital waterway has decreased significantly, and crews are experiencing unprecedented levels of concern.
Since July 6, at least nine ships have been targeted as Iran reportedly attempts to compel vessels to navigate through its territorial waters. Maniatis emphasized the pervasive fear among seafarers, noting, "Crews of vessels are even more concerned than they were before." He added, "Nobody is willing to move." The motivation is no longer financial but driven by palpable fear, impacting decision-making for voyages through the strait.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations agency, reports that one seafarer was killed and three were injured in an attack on the crude oil tanker Al Bahyah off Oman's coast on Tuesday. On the same day, eleven mariners were injured in an attack on the Mombasa B, another crude oil tanker navigating near Oman. Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at BIMCO, a major global shipping association, confirmed that these attacks have involved anti-ship missiles.
Adding to the tension, the U.S. military disabled an unladen oil tanker on Wednesday after re-imposing its naval blockade against Iran. U.S. Central Command stated that the Curacao-flagged M/T Belma ignored multiple warnings while transiting international waters toward Iran's Kharg Island.
Larsen also highlighted the severe threat posed by mines, stating that the traditional route through Hormuz, known as the traffic separation scheme, is too dangerous due to the risk of mine detonations. "If a mine detonates, typically that happens under the ship," he explained. "The mine is a very powerful weapon, so it's extremely dangerous for ships to run into a minefield."
Hormuz traffic at a trickle
Despite President Donald Trump's assertion on Tuesday that Hormuz was open to all ships except Iran's following the U.S. naval blockade's re-imposition, ship tracking data tells a different story. Ship tracking firms have observed a drastic decline in traffic, with Hormuz largely closed and only a minimal number of ships crossing with their transponders turned off, according to Lloyd's analysts monitoring the strait.
Data from trade intelligence firm Kpler shows that ship transits have fallen to a three-week low, with only eight vessels crossing on Thursday, down from 15 the previous day. This is a stark contrast to the more than 100 ships that transited Hormuz daily before recent escalations.
The U.S. has conducted six rounds of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the tanker attacks. Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen have threatened to disrupt ship traffic in the Red Sea, a crucial alternative route for Saudi oil exports.
"Unfortunately, it looks like we are on a path of escalation and the situation might well grow worse with time," Larsen warned.
Seafarers need reassurances
The ongoing conflict raises questions about the reopening of Hormuz under the memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 17. While Tehran committed to safe passage, the agreement lacked specifics on designated lanes. Shipping firms require credible assurances from both nations that Hormuz is secure. Without a clear agreement, the U.S. may continue strikes on Iranian military assets, potentially increasing traffic if shippers perceive a diminished threat.
Larsen noted that shipping companies have varying risk tolerances, with some choosing to avoid the strait altogether. The decision to transit Hormuz, he stressed, is not solely the owner's but also depends on the crew's willingness to undertake the perilous journey.
