SpaceX’s stock has seen a significant decline, falling below its IPO price and all-time highs, which is creating a cautious mood for upcoming major IPOs. This downturn is particularly concerning for potential listings of AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, as investors begin to question the high valuations and return on investment in the AI sector.
Adjustments to index inclusion rules had previously paved the way for companies like SpaceX, but its recent performance has tempered enthusiasm for similar large-scale offerings. The market is now more closely scrutinizing AI spending and its justification, adding further uncertainty to the prospects of these highly anticipated IPOs.
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SpaceX's once-soaring stock has taken a significant downturn, raising concerns about the prospects for upcoming blockbuster initial public offerings (IPOs), particularly those in the artificial intelligence sector. The company's shares are trading notably below their IPO price and all-time highs, sparking a cautious sentiment among investors.
On Friday, SpaceX's stock hovered near $126, approximately 7% lower than its IPO price of $135. This marks a substantial retreat from its peak intraday value, which had reached $225.64. This sharp reversal follows adjustments by major index providers, such as Nasdaq and FTSE Russell, that had previously eased requirements for companies like SpaceX to be included in their benchmarks. These rule changes were designed to facilitate the entry of large-cap companies into indices, thereby attracting significant passive investment flows.
The cooling of SpaceX's stock performance has led to worries that the excitement surrounding mega-cap IPOs, including potential offerings from AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic, might diminish. Michael Khouw, strategist at Tidal Financial Group, commented to CNBC that the situation "does dampen the mood. It would be hard for it not to."
The current IPO market has been dominated by mega-sized offerings. According to Renaissance Capital, while the number of IPOs in 2026 has decreased compared to the previous year, the total proceeds raised have surged dramatically, largely due to substantial offerings from companies such as SpaceX ($75 billion), SK Hynix (over $26 billion), and a combined approximately $10.23 billion from Cerebras, Innio, and Madison Air.
Adding to the subdued market sentiment is a broader re-evaluation of AI's return on investment. Following Meta's announcement of plans to monetize excess computing capacity and the increasing success of open-source AI models that rival proprietary solutions, investors are questioning the long-term sustainability of the massive investments being poured into AI. JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion at Cboe Global Markets, noted to CNBC, "We've had the narrative change, and there are just a lot more questions being asked" regarding AI spending and returns.
This backdrop comes as investors eagerly await news from OpenAI and Anthropic regarding their public market debuts. While Anthropic is reportedly preparing for investor meetings ahead of a potential 2026 IPO, The New York Times suggests OpenAI might postpone its IPO until next year.
