Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leveraging his unique rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump to gain a strategic advantage before the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara. Trump’s personal respect for Erdogan, despite his often-strained relations with other European allies, ensures his presence at the summit and opens the door for significant defense deals, including potential sales of F-35 fighter jets and F-110 jet engines previously blocked due to Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems. This relationship stands in contrast to President Biden’s more distant approach and has generated significant political maneuvering and controversy.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is strategically leveraging his uniquely warm relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, offering Turkey a significant diplomatic advantage as the highly anticipated NATO summit in Ankara approaches. While Trump has often publicly criticized and even disparaged many of his European counterparts who are expected to attend, his personal bond with Erdogan has secured his crucial presence at the event. This attendance, according to hints from the U.S. leader himself, could even come with a substantial 'gift' related to Turkish defense capabilities.
“I would not have gone for most people,” Trump remarked last week. “But he called me up. He said: ‘Please, I have it in Turkey. You got to be there. The United States has to be in there.’ And so I’m going out of respect to President Erdogan.”
This mutual respect has proven invaluable for Erdogan, helping to avert potential disarray within the alliance that Trump’s absence might have caused. This is particularly critical given Trump's repeated threats to reduce U.S. military presence in Europe and scale back America's role in NATO, moves that consistently unsettle allied nations. Trump, who has frequently lauded Erdogan as a “hell of a leader,” has historically admonished other NATO members over their defense spending, hailing last year's collective pledge to increase it as a personal triumph. More recently, he has clashed with allies who did not support his war against Iran.
Yet, for Erdogan, Trump has sweetened the deal, suggesting he might make significant announcements during his visit concerning jet engines and the possible sale of F-35 fighter jets. These advanced aircraft have been barred from Turkey for years due to Ankara’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. Trump’s apparent admiration for powerful leaders is well-documented, and Erdogan, who has steadily consolidated power in Turkey over 13 years as prime minister and president, fits this pattern.
Philip Gordon, former national security adviser for Vice President Kamala Harris and now with the Brookings Institution, observed, “His relationship with Erdogan, which is pretty strong, is consistent with what seems to be a pattern of his preference. It has often been pointed out he seems to have better relationships with adversaries and autocrats, and he certainly says nicer things about them than with allies.” Gordon added that “Erdogan is taking full advantage of it.”
Erdogan's Strategic Gamble: Snubbing Biden for Trump
Expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Erdogan on the summit sidelines, Trump will be the first U.S. president to visit Turkey since Barack Obama in 2015. In stark contrast, Democratic President Joe Biden maintained a cooler distance from Erdogan, citing concerns over Turkey's democratic backsliding and its close ties with Russia. Opposition parties and human rights organizations in Turkey have frequently accused Erdogan's government of eroding democratic principles and curbing freedom of expression, pointing to persistent issues with investigations and prosecutions targeting activists, journalists, and political opponents.
Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute highlighted that Erdogan and Trump developed a personal connection during Trump's initial term. When Biden extended an invitation to Erdogan in 2024 following Turkey's endorsement of Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership, Erdogan notably declined. “That was Erdogan’s way of signaling to Trump, ‘Hey, you are going to probably win the elections,’” Cagaptay explained. “I think Trump saw that as a giant gesture.”
Trump Hints at Jet Sales for Turkey
During a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte last week, Trump was asked by a reporter whether he was bringing a “big gift bag for Erdogan,” specifically mentioning Ankara’s interest in F-110 jet engines and F-35 fighter jets. “Yeah, I think so,” Trump responded. “Yeah, I’m going to probably do something that’s going to make him very happy.” Trump had previously hinted in September that the U.S. could soon resume F-35 sales to Turkey.
Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program was suspended in 2019 after its purchase of Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems. U.S. officials expressed fears that Turkey's operation of the Russian system could compromise the F-35’s stealth capabilities by allowing Moscow to gather sensitive intelligence. At an Oval Office meeting, Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington was exploring options for selling the jets to Turkey, emphasizing that any sale would ensure compliance with U.S. law. However, significant bipartisan opposition exists on Capitol Hill, including from influential Republicans like Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who oppose F-35 sales as long as Ankara retains the Russian missile systems.
Separately, Turkey is also seeking to purchase F-110 jet engines to power its domestically produced KAAN fighter jets. The State Department recently moved forward with these sales, notifying key lawmakers of its intent to bypass congressional opposition to over $700 million worth of jet engine sales to Ankara, according to anonymous sources familiar with the nonpublic notification. New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, criticized the move, stating, “In this case, the State Department did not even attempt to justify its decision. It did not invoke any emergency authority, did not present a written rationale, and for months refused to make a good-faith effort to brief me on implications of the sale for the U.S.-Turkey relationship, Turkey’s continued possession of the Russian S-400 system, and other regional security concerns.”
The U.S.-Turkey relationship has seen other signs of improvement as well. Earlier this year, Trump's Department of Justice dropped a major case against Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank, which had been accused of aiding Iran in evading U.S. sanctions.
Erdogan Lauds Trump's Friendship and Prompt Communication
Upon his return to the White House for a second term, Trump appointed a close friend, Tom Barrack, as ambassador to Turkey. Barrack, a long-time ally who also chaired Trump’s inaugural committee, is playing a “crucial role as a facilitator in the relationship,” according to Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Ankara’s TED University.
Erdogan and Trump have frequently engaged in telephone discussions concerning Syria, Gaza, and the broader Middle East. Turkey even joined Trump’s “Board of Peace,” an initiative aimed at overseeing the ceasefire in Gaza. Trump claimed this month that he asked Erdogan to avoid involvement in the war in Iran, and that the Turkish leader complied, although there was no prior indication Turkey intended to intervene.
Trump’s admiration for Erdogan was evident even during a joint news conference last year with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite Netanyahu’s government being at odds with Ankara, and his hopes of gaining Trump’s support against Turkish influence in Syria, he instead witnessed Trump showering praise on Erdogan and urging him to be “reasonable.” Reflecting on their close ties, Erdogan told reporters last year after meeting Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague that the U.S. president is remarkably quick to return his calls. “With my friend Trump, we are opening the door to a new era in Turkish-American relations,” Erdogan stated. “The process of telephone diplomacy between us has never exceeded 24 hours so far. When we call, the other side responds within 24 hours.”
