Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vehemently rejected any new Strait of Hormuz shipping route not coordinated with Tehran, labeling it “unacceptable and dangerous” and threatening enforcement against non-compliant vessels. This warning escalates tensions despite a recent U.S.-Iran interim agreement, highlighting Iran’s resolve to control the critical waterway and casting uncertainty on a full recovery of pre-war shipping levels. Analysts fear Iran’s continued influence could lead to persistently lower oil flows through the Strait.
In a forceful declaration on Wednesday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a stern warning to shipowners: any new transit route through the Strait of Hormuz established without explicit coordination with Tehran is deemed "unacceptable and dangerous." This announcement carries with it a threat of enforcement actions against any vessels that disregard Iran's directives.
This assertive stance highlights Tehran's unwavering commitment to maintaining control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and its firm resistance to any attempts at bypassing its authorization. It also casts a shadow of uncertainty over shipping operations, even following last week's interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening this crucial energy artery.
The IRGC Navy emphasized that only shipping routes officially sanctioned by Iran are permitted for passage. Furthermore, it stressed that mandatory coordination with Iranian forces via a specified communication channel is essential, as reported by Iranian local media.
"Navigation outside these routes is highly dangerous and prohibited, and we warn all vessels to strictly avoid any movement outside the designated corridors," the IRGC Navy's statement reportedly asserted.
This warning comes on the heels of a proposal issued Saturday by a prominent naval information group, which suggested alternative shipping corridors. The group advised shipowners to consider using a southern route through the strait, along Omani territorial waters, with transponder signals active. "The southern transit route, along Omani [territorial waters], has been confirmed clear of mines and is the recommended route," the advisory stated.
Despite a tentative recovery in traffic, data indicates that transits remain significantly below pre-war levels. Following the U.S.-Iran interim agreement, transits reportedly tripled to 93 last weekend compared to the preceding period, according to ship-tracking provider MarineTraffic. However, this is still a stark contrast to the pre-war era when over 100 ships navigated the strait daily.
MarineTraffic further confirmed 31 verified crossings on Tuesday by commercial and energy-laden vessels, noting that shipowners are still employing a mix of Iranian, Omani, and International Maritime Organization route patterns through the critical chokepoint. "Operators are still moving cautiously rather than returning to fully normal traffic patterns," the firm observed on Thursday.
In May, the U.S. Treasury had imposed sanctions on Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority, characterizing it as an attempt to "extort global maritime trade." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously cautioned that Washington would not "tolerate any tolling system" on Hormuz, vowing aggressive targeting of any parties involved.
Analysts are concerned that any enduring form of Iranian operational control could have lasting repercussions on global oil flows through the Strait. They suggest that transits may never fully rebound to pre-war volumes if Tehran maintains strategic dominance over the waterway.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, commented, "Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz before the war might represent the high point for transits for the foreseeable future. Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view."
— Spencer Kimball of CNBC also contributed to this report.
