Bitcoin’s recent drop below $60,000, losing 27% year-to-date, has sparked significant options trading in related stocks. Despite the general market “carnage,” traders are making both bearish and bullish bets on companies like Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN), indicating diverse expectations for the cryptocurrency market’s near future.
Following a significant dip that saw it break below the crucial $60,000 threshold for the first time since October 2024 on Friday, Bitcoin has managed to recover, now trading back above this pivotal level.
While the world's leading cryptocurrency has seen approximately 27% of its value erode in 2026, and currently stands roughly 50% off its historical peak, market participants remain undeterred. Evidence of this persistent interest emerged on Monday with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) ranking among the top 20 most actively traded options tickers by volume. Furthermore, two of the top 15 options trades by dollar value were executed in Strategy and Coinbase, signaling continued, albeit divergent, investor engagement.
These high-stakes options plays offered contrasting outlooks on the potential trajectory of the crypto-affiliated market.
A notable options trade involving Strategy, Michael Saylor's enterprise software firm and a major bitcoin holder, saw one investor execute a bearish diagonal strategy. This involved selling 29,425 of the 125/180-call diagonals, generating approximately $56 million. The trade entailed offloading 125-strike calls set to expire on August 21st and simultaneously purchasing 180-strike calls expiring on June 18th. This intricate strategy is designed to yield maximum profit if Strategy's stock price declines and remains below $125 by the August expiration, ideally leading to both call options expiring unexercised, allowing the trader to retain the entire premium received.
The revelation of Strategy's recent bitcoin sales—the first such divestment in several years—has sent ripples of concern through its investor base and the wider cryptocurrency community. However, a prominent industry analyst believes a market resurgence is probable.
'Amidst the pervasive influence of AI narratives that are challenging confidence in conventional financial structures, Bitcoin stands out as the most robust form of money, having consistently showcased the resilience of its proof-of-work framework,' stated Tom Lee, who serves as BitMine chairman and head of research at FundStrat.
This inherent resilience is widely seen as crucial for any potential recovery in the cryptocurrency sector, a sentiment echoed in another significant crypto-related options trade on Monday involving Coinbase. In this instance, a trader committed approximately $21 million, positioning for a substantial rebound in the beleaguered exchange's stock.
This particular trader also employed a diagonal options strategy, selling 10,990 June 18th expiration calls to net $4.9 million, while simultaneously acquiring $26 million worth of 160-strike calls expiring on August 21st. Although this structure leverages time decay, it represents a distinctly bullish outlook, as the trader anticipates appreciation in the value of the longer-dated calls.
To realize profitability on these August expiration calls, Coinbase's stock price would need to climb above $183.40 per share, which implies an increase of approximately 13% from its trading level during Monday's session.
