Apple’s impressive stock performance and record growth may be poised for a slowdown, according to Daiwa Capital Markets. While maintaining an ‘outperform’ rating, Daiwa analysts express concerns about upcoming challenges, including tough year-over-year comparisons and rising costs, potentially impacting growth beyond April 27th.
Despite a strong fiscal 2026, with revenues reaching $478 billion, macroeconomic headwinds and supply chain issues for key components like the new Duo iPhone are creating pressure. Daiwa’s cautious outlook echoes broader market sentiment, though a majority of analysts still recommend buying Apple stock.
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Apple has been on a remarkable ascent, notching record growth and seeing its stock price soar. However, this golden era may be nearing its end, according to Daiwa Capital Markets. Despite maintaining an 'outperform' rating and raising its 12-month price target to $375 from $335, Daiwa suggests that the stock's impressive rally could soon lose steam.
Analyst Louis Miscioscia, in a note to clients, questioned "How long can the good times [at Apple] last." He predicted that while the December and March quarters should remain strong due to backorders and channel fill, the period after April 27th will become significantly more challenging. This forecast is attributed to tough year-over-year comparisons and rising memory costs.
Apple's stock has surged nearly 27% year-to-date in 2026, outperforming other tech stocks that have been impacted by fears of an AI slowdown. The company recently announced a stellar fiscal 2026 performance, reporting $478 billion in revenue, a 15% increase year over year. However, shares experienced a slight dip following the earnings report amid concerns over macroeconomic headwinds that could impede future growth.
Daiwa highlights that Apple is facing increasing memory costs and supply constraints for critical hardware components, which could stifle growth in 2027 and put pressure on its stock. "Prior contracts/inventory helped Apple hold the line on costs/margins, but this gets harder in 2027," Miscioscia stated. He also noted that while iPhone product releases are performing well, the new Duo model appears to be significantly supply-constrained. Furthermore, the analyst pointed out that Apple has not achieved two consecutive years of double-digit growth since fiscal year 2015.
This cautious outlook from Daiwa aligns with the broader consensus on Wall Street. Data from LSEG indicates that out of 43 analysts covering Apple, 25 currently hold a 'buy' or 'strong buy' rating on the stock.
