Recent global elections in Brazil, Serbia, and Hungary have seen a downturn for leaders closely associated with former U.S. President Donald Trump, challenging his international influence. Despite receiving some U.S. backing, figures like Jair Bolsonaro, Aleksandar Vučić, and Viktor Orbán faced electoral setbacks or defeats.
Experts caution, however, that these outcomes are primarily driven by domestic factors rather than external influence, indicating that while Trump’s endorsements can matter in U.S. primaries, their effect abroad is less pronounced.
- Recent elections in Brazil, Serbia, and Hungary have seen the defeat or electoral challenges for leaders aligned with former U.S. President Donald Trump, despite some receiving American support.
- While these results question the extent of Trump's global influence, experts emphasize that domestic issues are the primary drivers of election outcomes worldwide.
In August, President Donald Trump boasted that 97% of the Republican candidates he endorsed had emerged victorious in their primary contests.
Indeed, Trump has demonstrated a capacity to sway races, particularly within the Republican primaries, successfully targeting politicians he opposed, such as Senator John Cornyn of Texas and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky.
However, despite his willingness to voice opinions on foreign leaders, his influence over the electoral outcomes in other nations appears to be considerably weaker.
Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, a candidate aligned with Trump and the son of former Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro.
Furthermore, last weekend saw a student-led movement in Serbia unseat the ruling party led by Aleksandar Vučić. Vučić, a populist leader who had fostered connections with Trump and his associates, had served as Serbia's president since 2017 and prime minister prior to that.
In his concession speech, Vučić attributed his defeat to "a revolution carried out by the people with direct support from various European countries and the American deep state, the one that opposes President Trump," as reported by Newsweek.
Earlier this year, Vice President JD Vance visited Hungary for a two-day trip, publicly endorsing then-Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Despite this backing and Orbán's status as a staunch Trump ally, he lost his election, ending a 16-year tenure.
In October, Trump also endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection. While the election results from October 27th were not fully finalized, the Associated Press indicated that Netanyahu's Likud party was poised to lose its parliamentary majority.
Nonetheless, experts suggest that Trump's impact on individual global elections remains inconsistent.
"Elections are always national first and regional or global a very distant second," Cas Mudde, professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, informed CNBC.
Furthermore, Stijn van Kessel, a professor of comparative politics at Queen Mary University of London, noted that it's unclear if Trump ever wielded significant influence over far-right figures internationally.
"Far-right parties and politicians like to celebrate each others' victories as it allows them to portray themselves as part of a successful global movement," he explained, adding that these alliances can quickly deteriorate when national interests clash, potentially making a foreign partner politically toxic to a domestic electorate.
Van Kessel cited the recent strain between Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which arose after Italy's refusal to grant U.S. aircraft access to a NATO airbase for operations against Iran.
Trump later claimed Meloni had "begged" him for a photograph at the G7 summit, a statement that Meloni subsequently denied.
Right wing strength
Despite these developments, right-wing movements continue to demonstrate considerable strength in various parts of the world. In France, Marine Le Pen is currently leading in polls to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, according to Politico's compilation. However, her past campaigns have often seen her initial lead narrow as support coalesces around more moderate candidates.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party secured 20.8% of the vote in the February 2025 federal election, positioning it as the country's largest opposition party. Trump ally Javier Milei currently governs Argentina, and Colombia's new President Abelardo de la Espriella was elected on a platform leaning heavily to the right.
However, Mudde pointed out that most far-right leaders tend to distance themselves from Trump when his popularity wanes domestically. Trump's approval ratings remain near historic lows in the U.S., partly due to issues such as the Iran war and the economic impact of soaring energy prices.
"Voters are willing to give anyone a shot when they are economically frustrated, but when those experiments fail, they move on to something else," commented David Barker, a professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C. He added that at this stage, Trump's involvement risks "undermin[ing] his allies' ability to maintain support."
