Chinese President Xi Jinping has signaled a more optimistic outlook on U.S.-China relations, suggesting the historical ‘Thucydides Trap’ can be avoided. During his summit with President Trump, Xi stated the trap is “overcome-able,” shifting from previous concerns about its inevitability. This perspective emphasizes competition without confrontation, aiming to establish a framework for managing tensions and preventing military conflict.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has once again brought the concept of the 'Thucydides Trap' into the spotlight, this time expressing a belief that the historic rivalry between a rising and an established power can be overcome. During his recent summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, Xi stated, "The Thucydides Trap can be overcome," a marked shift from his previous framing that questioned whether the two nations could avoid such a fate.
Statue of Thucydides, the Greek philosopher, in front of the Parliament building in Vienna, Austria. (Eye Ubiquitous | Universal Images Group | Getty Images)
The 'Thucydides Trap,' a term popularized by Harvard professor Graham Allison in the early 2010s, describes the historical tendency for conflict to arise when a new power emerges and challenges the dominance of an established one. The concept draws parallels to the Peloponnesian War, where the rapid rise of Athens alarmed Sparta, ultimately leading to war.
Xi's engagement with this concept is not new. He previously discussed avoiding the trap in a 2014 interview and has shown interest in the dynamics of major power relations, with Chinese state media suggesting his focus on the 'Thucydides Trap' reflects a belief that mutual suspicion, rather than inevitability, fuels conflict.
Following his 2015 visit to the U.S., an article in People's Daily noted Xi's contemplation of the 'Thucydides Trap,' implying that the conflict predicted by the term is often a result of major powers' distrust rather than an inherent inevitability.
During the recent summit, Xi's remarks on overcoming the 'Thucydides Trap' were accompanied by a call for peaceful coexistence and a notion of "healthy competition" without confrontation. He articulated this as a "race of catching up with one another, not a wrestle in which one either wins or loses." Furthermore, he emphasized the importance of improved crisis communication and prevention between the two nations' militaries.
Cui Shoujun, a professor at Renmin University of China's School of International Studies, translated Xi's sentiment by stating that establishing a "bottom line – competing intensely without military conflict – is the 'most significant political outcome' of the summit." This, he believes, has "injected certainty into the volatile bilateral relationship."
While President Trump's public statements upon Xi's arrival focused on general collaboration, the sensitive issue of Taiwan was also discussed. According to Beijing's readout, Xi urged the U.S. to "oppose 'Taiwan independence.'"
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