Wall Street strategist Jeff Kilburg outlines a bullish options strategy for SpaceX (SPCX), targeting its anticipated Starship Flight 14 on September 15. The strategy, a risk reversal, aims to capitalize on the company’s evolving narrative from a post-IPO ‘lockup-and-capex problem’ to a leader in space and vertically integrated AI, while navigating a looming share unlock and suppressed volatility. Kilburg recommends selling the 9/18/2026 $140 put and buying the 9/18/2026 $160 call for a net debit of $0.35, betting on a price surge fueled by the flight’s success and strong analyst sentiment.
SpaceX is gearing up for a pivotal launch, and Wall Street strategist Jeff Kilburg is urging investors to leverage options for greater upside exposure to this 'literal rocket ship company.' Following its IPO, SpaceX's stock (SPCX) has seen significant price discovery, initially reclaiming its $150 IPO print but still trading approximately 35% below its $225 post-IPO high. After a summer of being characterized as a 'lockup-and-capex problem,' the narrative has dramatically shifted in the last 48 hours, repositioning SpaceX as the sole entity launching satellites, managing constellations, and integrating AI compute on its balance sheet.
This renewed optimism is echoed across Wall Street. Oppenheimer's Tim Horan has elevated his price target for SPCX to $280 from $250, maintaining a 'buy' recommendation. Horan highlights SpaceX's vertically integrated AI stack, encompassing data, Nvidia GPUs, Grok, and the Cursor deal. Bernstein projects a staggering 'hockey stick' growth, with AI revenue soaring to $115 billion in 2027 from $24.6 billion in 2026. J.P. Morgan sets its price target at $240, while Deutsche Bank and BofA also retain 'buy' ratings. The overall analyst consensus suggests a potential 50% upside from current levels.
SpaceX's second-quarter results reinforced its strong trajectory, reporting $7.81 billion in revenue, a 92% year-over-year increase that surpassed expectations. Starlink has expanded its subscriber base to 12 million, and the company boasts a nameplate compute capacity of 1.4 GW. While the space segment continues to incur substantial cash burn for Starship development – a 'vig' for this high-flyer – the success of Flight 13, which met its objectives post-quarter, bodes well.
Crucially, SpaceX has informed the FCC that it is targeting September 15 for Starship Flight 14. This will be the vehicle's first fully orbital attempt and is designed to deploy V3 Starlink satellites at a cadence far exceeding that of the earlier-generation Falcon rockets. A successful, safely delivered Starship payload is the capacity story investors are eagerly awaiting, and this target date conveniently falls within the September regular options expiration.
Kilburg identifies two primary reasons why SPCX stock remains undervalued: the upcoming September 9 share unlock and the lingering memory of the summer's post-IPO 'air pocket,' which caused implied volatility (IV) to plummet from triple digits to a 52% 30-day reading, nearing the bottom of its post-listing range. With historical volatility still outpacing implied volatility, Kilburg notes that investors are effectively 'being paid to take the unlock that everyone already circled.'
To capitalize on this potential rebound, Kilburg recommends a defined-risk bullish risk reversal strategy expiring on September 18. This strategy involves 'selling the expensive fear around the unlock' and 'buying the call that hopefully participates if Flight 14 and the AI re-rate do what the targets imply.' The specific trade advised is:
- Sold: 9/18/2026 $140 put for $2.15
- Bought: 9/18/2026 $160 call for $2.50
- Net debit: $0.35, or $35 per one-lot
When this strategy was established, SPCX was trading around $149. The short $140 put implies a willingness to own SPCX at a price approximately 10% lower than the current level, yet still above its $135 actual IPO price, a level deemed attractive given analyst targets like Bernstein's $248 and Oppenheimer's $280. The long $160 call, about 7% out-of-the-money, stands to profit if the stock surges past the mid-$160s into the September 15 flight window. The upside potential above $160.35 in this SPCX position is uncapped. The maximum loss on the call side is limited to the $0.35 debit, with an assignment risk if the stock falls below $140 at expiration. The September 18 expiration date conveniently covers both the anticipated September 9 share unlock and the critical Starship Flight 14 event.
DISCLOSURES: Jeff Kilburg personally holds SPCX and also owns SPCX within the Mango Growth ETF (ticker: GARY), which he co-manages. All opinions expressed are solely his and do not reflect those of CNBC or its affiliates.
