Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf states are now exporting 15-16 million barrels of oil daily, exceeding 60% of pre-Iran war levels, despite remaining below historical peaks. The accurate tracking of these exports is complicated by covert shipping tactics, including deactivated transponders and increased ship-to-ship transfers, as producers adapt to the ongoing Mideast conflict. Shipping markets anticipate these disruptions to persist until at least 2027.
New estimates from Goldman Sachs reveal a significant resurgence in oil exports from the Gulf states, now reaching approximately 15 million to 16 million barrels per day. This figure represents more than 60% of the region's output before the onset of the Iran war, signaling a remarkable recovery despite ongoing regional instability.
While current export levels remain 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below pre-war norms, Goldman analysts noted a robust rebound of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day from the nadir observed in March during the most intense phase of the conflict. The process of accurately monitoring oil flows from the Gulf has become increasingly complex, primarily due to the war's impact on transparency.
Analysts highlighted several challenges in tracking shipments: many tankers are now operating with their transponders deactivated to avoid real-time detection on ship-tracking platforms. Additionally, satellite coverage for vessel detection is limited, and there has been a noticeable increase in ship-to-ship transfers occurring outside the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, initial estimates of oil volumes from the Gulf often undergo upward revisions as tankers eventually reactivate their transponders and become detectable.
These adjustments suggest that oil transits through the critical Strait of Hormuz could be nearing the Trump administration's earlier estimates of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day. Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, and his team commented to clients, "The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict." They further cautioned that "Shipping markets now price in disruptions likely continuing well into 2027," indicating an expectation of prolonged instability impacting global oil logistics.
