Bitcoin’s recent rally, fueled by U.S. Treasury intervention and White House support for the Clarity Act, has pushed its price significantly higher. However, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are not anticipating further substantial gains, with forecasts suggesting Bitcoin will end the year near current levels, around $75,000.
This prediction indicates a more conservative outlook compared to the recent bullish momentum, hinting at potential consolidation or a slight decline from its peak trading prices.
Bitcoin has staged an impressive comeback this week, surging over 20% and reclaiming levels not seen since May. This resurgence follows a dual catalyst: a timely intervention by the U.S. Treasury to stabilize the bond market, easing pressure on risk assets, and a high-profile White House event where President Donald Trump, alongside crypto industry leaders and regulators, advocated for the approval of the Clarity Act market structure proposal. However, despite the recent upward momentum, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are signaling a more cautious outlook for the cryptocurrency's year-end trajectory.
A Bitcoin ATM is pictured, illustrating the accessibility of the cryptocurrency. (Justin Sullivan | Getty Images)
Data from Kalshi suggests that traders anticipate Bitcoin will conclude 2026 hovering around the $75,000 mark. This forecast is derived from the average of 'yes' and 'no' trades placed on contracts predicting the cryptocurrency's price range at the stroke of midnight on January 1, 2027. The platform uses CF Benchmarks data to resolve these contracts.
This sentiment represents a shift from the pre-Wednesday outlook, where Kalshi traders most likely expected Bitcoin to end the year closer to $66,000. Even with the recent gains, the current projection suggests a potential slight pullback from Bitcoin's recent trading price, which has surpassed $77,000.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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