SpaceX Soars: Argus Upgrades Shares, Citing AI Investments and Musk's Proven Track Record

By Alex Harring

August 7, 2026

SpaceX is poised for a significant rebound, fueled by its aggressive artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, according to a new report from Argus Research. Despite ongoing investor concerns about substantial capital expenditures, analysts at Argus are optimistic about the long-term payoff of SpaceX's AI infrastructure investments.

Argus Research has upgraded its rating on SpaceX (SPCX) to a "Buy" from "Hold," maintaining a 12-month price target of $160. This target suggests a potential upside of 39% from Thursday's closing price. The firm's analyst, Steve Silver, highlighted the rapid return on investment expected from SpaceX's computing capacity growth, despite the high capital expenditure requirements, primarily for AI infrastructure.

SpaceX's journey since its June 15 IPO at $135 has been volatile. The stock initially surged 20% on its debut but later experienced a sharp 37% decline in July. This was followed by another 14% drop after the company's first earnings report as a public entity, which revealed a six-fold increase in capital expenditures to over $18 billion, largely driven by its AI initiatives. Even with the recent rebound, SpaceX shares remain approximately 50% below their mid-June record high of $225.64.

Navigating Lockup Expirations and Investor Sentiment

The report also addresses potential headwinds, including upcoming lockup expirations that could release a substantial number of shares into the market. Over 300 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading later this month, with several hundred million more potentially available in September and October. Argus advises investors to view any near-term price dips as buying opportunities, citing SpaceX's strong underlying fundamentals.

"We expect the shares to remain volatile given the initial lockup expiration for insider shares, and expect several additional tranches over the next year," Silver noted. "Nevertheless, SPCX's strong operational performance in [the second quarter of 2026] and robust growth outlook over the coming years mitigate these factors."

Musk's Track Record and Analyst Consensus

Argus's positive outlook is partly attributed to Elon Musk's proven track record with Tesla (TSLA). The firm projects that SpaceX's revenue could more than double in 2026 and 2027, with its shares expected to surge, mirroring the success of Musk's previous ventures. The analyst pointed to a $10,000 investment in Tesla in 2010, which would be worth $2.5 million today, as a testament to Musk's ability to drive significant shareholder value.

This optimistic view aligns with the broader Wall Street consensus. Data from LSEG indicates that out of 36 analysts covering SpaceX, 28 recommend a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating.