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Flávio Bolsonaro has officially launched his presidential campaign for Brazil’s upcoming election, aiming to succeed his father, Jair Bolsonaro. The event, however, was shadowed by notable absences from key allies and family members, including his stepmother Michelle Bolsonaro, and faced challenges in forming broader political alliances.
Despite internal rifts and political hurdles, the campaign has secured international endorsements from Argentina’s Javier Milei and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, while also facing criticism for repeating debunked claims about the voting system and internal family disputes.
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, has officially announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election, seeking to lead the Liberal Party against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The launch event in Sao Paulo, however, was marked by a conspicuous absence of key political allies and family members, signaling significant challenges ahead for his campaign.
Despite the internal and external hurdles, Flávio Bolsonaro aims to channel the support base of his father, who is currently under house arrest following a 2022 election loss and a conviction for plotting a coup. The 45-year-old senator's campaign faces the immediate task of securing a running mate and building broader alliances, as centrist parties have yet to show strong support.
Notable among the absentees was Flávio's stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, a significant figure among evangelical voters, who recently engaged in public disagreements with the candidate. While Michelle Bolsonaro appeared in a recorded video, she briefly mentioned Flávio, highlighting a potential rift within the family that could impact his campaign's appeal.
Despite these internal tensions, the campaign secured endorsements from international figures. Argentina's President Javier Milei was present, and a video message of support was shown from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The campaign also indicated expectations for further endorsements from members of former U.S. President Donald Trump's administration.
Milei urged Brazil to reject what he termed the "Lula risk" of continued progressive policies, framing the election as a choice for Latin America's economic powerhouse. However, the event's reliance on an AI-generated video of Jair Bolsonaro underscored the limitations imposed by the former president's legal situation.
Flávio Bolsonaro, visibly emotional, paid tribute to his father and voiced strong opposition to President Lula, accusing the Supreme Court of persecuting his family. He declared the convention as the start of a crucial battle between "good and evil," aiming to secure the presidency for the next term.
The search for a running mate remains a critical challenge, with attempts to recruit former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina proving unsuccessful. The Popular Party, a key ally of Jair Bolsonaro, has maintained distance, surprising many political observers.
Political consultant Thomas Traumann noted that Flávio Bolsonaro has been consistently dealing with multiple issues weekly, often finding himself on the defensive. He suggested that the campaign is currently in a holding pattern, with official activities set to intensify after August.
The incumbent Workers' Party, led by President Lula, is scheduled to confirm his reelection bid at their convention on August 2nd.
The campaign has faced self-inflicted wounds, including Flávio Bolsonaro's admission of requesting funds from a jailed banker for a film about his father, which alienated some allies. Additionally, his visits to the U.S. administration have been controversially linked by some to new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports.
Further complicating matters, Flávio's stepmother publicly criticized him for being disrespectful. He also drew condemnation for reiterating debunked claims about the integrity of Brazil's electronic voting system, echoing the arguments that led to his father's ineligibility.
In a move towards reconciliation before the convention, Flávio apologized to Michelle Bolsonaro during a live broadcast, citing undue persecution. Michelle Bolsonaro accepted the apology, signaling a potential family reunion ahead of the campaign's main phase.
Traumann observed that Flávio's strategy has shifted from portraying himself as a moderate, akin to his father's initial stance, to now appealing primarily to the party's radical base. The challenge will be retaining moderate voters who are opposed to the Workers' Party but may be wary of the more extreme elements of his campaign.
