Wall Street is bracing for a dynamic trading session following a tumultuous period where the Dow Industrials saw a significant tumble. As producers at CNBC TV keep a close watch, several key areas are poised to shape tomorrow's market narrative, from crucial earnings reports to shifting sector performances and new geopolitical trade challenges.
Big earnings reports are set to make waves on 'Squawk Box' Friday morning, bringing immediate market reactions. Among individual stocks, American Express has demonstrated resilience, climbing 7% over three months despite a 12% dip from its December high. Verizon, however, is down 7% in the last quarter and 15% from its March peak, though its attractive 6.46% dividend yield (based on a quarterly payment of about 71 cents per share) might appeal to income investors. HCA Healthcare has faced a steeper decline, dropping 20% over three months and a substantial 32% from its March high.
The energy market is undeniably the standout performer, with Brent crude futures surging 14% week-to-date and breaching the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are also up over 11% this week, crossing $90 a barrel. This surge in crude prices has directly impacted consumers, with the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline now at $4.09, according to AAA, and gasoline futures up nearly 18% in just a month. This robust performance is reflected in the S&P Energy sector, which leads all sectors this week with a 3.5% gain. Key players like EQT (up 7.7% this week), ExxonMobil (up 6.5%), Diamondback Energy (up 5%), Occidental Petroleum (up 5%), ConocoPhillips (up 4.8%), and Chevron (up 3.8%) are all seeing strong weekly gains, despite most being off their March/May highs.
In contrast to the energy boom, the 'Great American consumer' stocks are feeling the pinch. As energy prices climb, retail and related sectors often struggle. The State Street PDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 3.4% this week and 6% from its January high. The S&P Airline industry has also dipped 2.7% this week, marking a 13.5% drop from its June high. Individual retail giants are also hurting: Target is down 3.7% in four days (7% from last week's high), Walmart is off 5.1% in four days (20% from its May high), Bath & Body Works has plunged 7.3% in four days (41% from its year-ago high), Dick's Sporting Goods is down 6% this week (16% from its June 22 high), and Abercrombie & Fitch, a mall staple, has shed 4.6% this week (32% from its January high).
Adding another layer of complexity are new tariffs announced by the Trump administration, targeting 60 American trade partners and covering 99% of trade. These 10% to 12.5% tariffs are expected to have a more long-term and steady impact than previous temporary measures. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) has reacted negatively, down 8% from its February high, while surprisingly, the iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) hit a new high on Wednesday, up 2% in July. The implications of these tariffs will be closely watched throughout Friday's trading session.