/https://media.cnbc.com/dims/origin/108343257/Spider-Man-Brand-New-Day.jpg "Spider-Man Smashes Box Office Records with ‘Brand New Day’ Preview Haul")
The Strait of Hormuz faces a "worst-case scenario" as Iran’s escalated attacks on oil tankers have brought maritime traffic to a near halt, instilling deep fear among crews.
Nine ships have been attacked since July 6, leading to casualties, as Iran attempts to reroute vessels through its territorial waters.
This crisis, compounded by a U.S. naval blockade and threats to Red Sea shipping, highlights the urgent need for reliable security assurances amid a dangerous path of escalation.
The vital Strait of Hormuz has descended into a "worst-case scenario" for oil tankers, as Iran intensifies its aggression against shipping, leading to a dramatic halt in maritime traffic, according to a leading maritime risk expert.
"We see the reduction of the volume of transits through the Strait of Hormuz and right now crews of vessels are even more concerned than they were before," stated Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Athens-based Marisks, during a Lloyd's List Intelligence briefing this week. He added, unsettlingly, that "Nobody is willing to move."
Watch now: Gulf nations to invest in pipelines in Hormuz workarounds (2:52)
Since July 6, at least nine ships have come under attack, as Iran attempts to coerce vessels into navigating Hormuz through its territorial waters, rather than the U.S. military-protected route along Oman's coast. The International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations agency, confirmed one seafarer tragically killed and three injured in an attack on the crude oil tanker Al Bahyah off Oman's coast. Eleven more mariners were wounded the same day in an assault on the Mombasa B, another crude oil tanker.
Jakob Larsen, Chief Security Officer at BIMCO, one of the world's largest shipping associations, confirmed the Iranian attacks involved anti-ship missiles. Maniatis highlighted the profound psychological impact: "Crews of vessels are even more concerned than they were before. It's not about money anymore. It's not about any other higher calling. It's purely about the fear that is governing the decision making right now."
In response to the escalating crisis, the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade against Iran, with U.S. Central Command reporting the disabling of the Curacao-flagged M/T Belma on Wednesday after it ignored warnings while transiting international waters towards Iran's Kharg Island.
The traditional route through the center of Hormuz, known as the traffic separation scheme, remains too perilous due to the persistent threat of mines. Larsen warned, "If a mine detonates, typically that happens under the ship. The mine is a very powerful weapon, so it's extremely dangerous for ships to run into a minefield."
Hormuz Traffic Dries Up
Despite President Donald Trump's declaration on Tuesday that Hormuz was "open to all ships except those of Iran," shipping firms have reported a drastic decline in traffic. Lloyd's analysts, monitoring the strait, indicate that Hormuz has "largely closed again," with only a "trickle of ships crossing with their transponders turned off."
Chart: Routes taken by ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz
Data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed ship transits falling to an alarming eight on Thursday, down from 15 the previous day. Before the wider conflict began on Feb. 28, over 100 ships navigated Hormuz daily, exporting approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and products.
Chart: Ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz by carrier type
The U.S. has launched six rounds of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the tanker attacks, while Tehran has responded with missile volleys targeting U.S. allies in the Gulf. Compounding the crisis, Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen are now threatening to shut down ship traffic in the Red Sea, a critical alternative route for Saudi oil exports.
"Unfortunately, it looks like we are on a path of escalation and the situation might well grow worse with time," Larsen warned.
Reassurances Needed for Seafarers
The escalating conflict unfolds amidst a dispute between the U.S. and Iran over how Hormuz should reopen under a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17. While Tehran promised safe passage, the agreement ambiguously failed to define specific navigation lanes.
Shipping firms desperately need "reliable reassurances" from both Iran and the U.S. regarding the safety of Hormuz, Larsen emphasized. In the absence of such an agreement, the alternative involves continued U.S. strikes against Iranian missile batteries, drone operators, and gunboats. Traffic might only resume if shippers are convinced that the threat from Tehran has been sufficiently neutralized.
Ultimately, the decision to transit Hormuz isn't solely up to the "ship owner sitting behind his desk," Larsen concluded. "It also requires that the crew actually agree."
