SpaceX Faces Mounting Bets Against It as Stock Tumbles Below IPO Price

Last updated: July 17, 2026 7:58 am

2 weeks ago

1 Min Read

Short sellers are aggressively increasing their bets against SpaceX, with bearish positioning now approaching one-third of the company’s public float as its stock price dips below its IPO valuation.

This surge in short interest, escalating from roughly 5-7% to 29% in three weeks, comes as SpaceX shares have fallen about 20% in July. Investors are also anticipating significant lockup expirations that could increase the number of shares available for trading.

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Short sellers are significantly increasing their bearish bets against SpaceX, pushing speculative positioning to nearly a third of the company's publicly traded shares as the stock struggles below its initial public offering (IPO) price.

According to S3 Partners, approximately 185 million SpaceX shares are currently sold short, representing about 29% of the publicly available float. This represents a substantial increase from just three weeks ago, when an estimated 40 million shares, or 5% to 7% of the float, were sold short.

SpaceX Faces Mounting Bets Against It as Stock Tumbles Below IPO Price

A live feed shows SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite, in New York City, U.S., June 12, 2026.

Jeenah Moon | Reuters

"We are seeing continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO," stated Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3.

The surge in short interest coincides with SpaceX's stock performance after a strong debut. The shares have declined approximately 20% in July and briefly fell below their $135 IPO price on Wednesday for the first time. On Thursday, the stock was trading around $131 per share.

SpaceX one month

This increased bearish sentiment comes ahead of a significant lockup expiration schedule, which could drastically increase the number of shares available for trading in the coming months. SpaceX's initial public float constituted only about 5% of its approximately 13 billion outstanding shares, leaving the majority of stock subject to lockup restrictions, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc projects that the first major unlock could occur around the company's second-quarter earnings report, potentially making about 11% of outstanding shares available for sale.

Further unlocks, each around 4%, are anticipated to begin approximately 70 days after the IPO, with additional releases tied to performance milestones and third-quarter earnings.

The largest portion of locked-up shares remains Elon Musk's stake, representing about 42% of outstanding shares, which is restricted until June 2027.

Meanwhile, the company's 13th Starship test flight is scheduled for Thursday, a development that could influence investor sentiment towards the stock.