Fed Rate Decision Looms: Oil Dips Below $80, Tech Stocks Face Volatility

Published: October 26, 2023

Wednesday's trading session is poised for significant movement as investors brace for the Federal Reserve's crucial rate decision, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The market is also closely monitoring a sharp decline in oil prices and key earnings reports from major corporations.

Fed Decision and Treasury Yields

At 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The market is keenly observing this as the first major policy move by the new Fed chair. Ahead of the announcement, Treasury yields show a mixed picture:

• 10-year Treasury note: 4.43%
• 2-year yield: 4.05%
• 1-year yield: 3.84%
• 6-month T-bill: 3.8%
• 3-month T-bill: 3.72%
• 1-month T-bill: 3.63%

High-yield corporate bond ETFs are also showing significant dividend yields:

• iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (SHYG): 6.99%
• iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG): 5.89%
• State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK): 6.59%
• Fidelity Corporate Bond ETF (FCOR): 4.53%
• KraneShares Asia Pacific High Income USD Bond ETF (KHYB): 8.8%

CNBC's senior economics reporter Steve Liesman will provide real-time coverage of the Fed's announcement.

Oil Prices Tumble

Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures have fallen below the $80 a barrel mark, marking a 27% decline over the past month. This downturn has impacted the S&P Energy Sector, which is down 13% from its March 27 high. Gasoline futures have also seen a 21% drop in the last month.

Average gasoline prices in New Jersey are around $4.08 per gallon, with some stations offering prices below $4. In Texas, the average is approximately $3.50.

Market Performance and Technicals

Recent winning streaks for the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 have come to an end. The Dow Transports are also down 10% from their 52-week high. Despite these pullbacks, all major indexes remain above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Key Earnings and Company News

CarMax (KMX)

CarMax is set to release its earnings before the market opens. The stock has gained nearly 25% in the last three months but is down 27% from its 52-week high in July 2025.

Jabil (JBL)

Jabil's earnings report is expected in the 8 a.m. hour. The stock is up 45% over three months and recently hit a high, though it has since seen a 6% decline.

Amazon (AMZN)

CNBC will be closely watching for news regarding Amazon Web Services (AWS). Amazon shares have risen 3.1% over two days, but are down 9% in June and 11.7% from their May 5 high.

Other Notable Events

SpaceX Resupply Mission

A major SpaceX resupply mission is scheduled to conclude with a splashdown off the California coast at 8:08 a.m. ET. SpaceX's stock recently surpassed the $200 per share mark.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) Annual Meeting

CNBC's Seema Mody will cover CrowdStrike's annual meeting. The cybersecurity company's stock has fallen 13.5% from its June 1 high but is up approximately 45% year-to-date in 2026 and 60% in the last three months.