Three Iranian tankers, carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil, have exited the U.S. Navy’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, marking a significant development ahead of a U.S.-Iran deal signing this Friday in Geneva. While the impending agreement is expected to reopen the vital waterway and lift sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, the shipping industry remains largely cautious, with many owners adopting a “wary disbelief” stance despite some repositioning vessels towards Gulf ports.
In a significant development signaling a potential shift in geopolitical tensions, three Iranian tankers, collectively laden with nearly five million barrels of crude oil, have successfully navigated out of the U.S. Navy's blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the first outbound shipment of its kind in two months, stirring cautious optimism among shipowners as a U.S.-Iran deal is slated for signing in Geneva this Friday.
The breakthrough involves two supertankers, Diona and Hero 2, both under U.S. sanctions and owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company. These vessels traversed the blockade perimeter carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude. A third Iran-linked tanker, transporting an additional one million barrels, followed suit on Wednesday, according to shipping intelligence firm Kpler.
"Their apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading tankers are also preparing to resume trading," noted Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
Above: While this image shows a video thumbnail, the event described depicts U.S. forces operating in the Arabian Sea enforcing naval blockade measures against an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel on April 19, 2026. (U.S. Central Command | Getty Images)
This critical movement precedes a formal signing ceremony for a Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva, intended to conclude a nearly four-month conflict. The undisclosed terms of the pact are widely expected to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the waiver of sanctions on Iran's crucial oil sales.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington is prepared to allow Tehran to commence immediate oil and fuel sales post-agreement, in exchange for Iran's commitment to scale back its nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for approximately a fifth of global oil supplies before the conflict, has been largely inaccessible due to U.S. Navy blockades of Iranian ports and retaliatory actions by Iran against perceived adversary vessels.
"The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration."
The prospect of a reopened waterway has spurred some shipowners, reeling from escalating freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums, to reposition their vessels towards Gulf ports, anticipating a surge in restocking demand. However, the prevailing sentiment in the industry leans towards extreme caution.
Lloyd's List Intelligence articulated this hesitancy, stating, "The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration." Insurers are maintaining high war-risk premiums, demanding "solid evidence" of sustained safety in the waterway before adjusting rates. Analysts from Lloyd's noted that while a ceasefire offers a fragile reprieve for mariners and markets, it's not yet seen as a return to normalcy.
Watch the video:
President Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is going to be toll-free beyond the 60 days - Squawk Box (1:25)
Despite the overall apprehension, some very large crude carrier (VLCC) owners are attempting to secure a "first-mover advantage," redirecting tankers toward the Middle East Gulf. Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported on Wednesday that dozens of VLCCs are currently en route from the South China Sea across the Indian Ocean towards UAE ports, where approximately 30 vessels are already anchored.
However, traffic through the Strait is anticipated to remain minimal until the deal is formally inked on Friday. The U.S. Navy has reiterated to the industry that "nothing has changed and will not until the agreement is signed," according to Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko. The scale of the accumulated backlog is substantial, with Kpler estimating that 118 laden tankers could depart the region within 15 days of the agreement. Yet, this initial surge is projected to be a one-off event rather than a sustained recovery.
Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, concluded, "Most shipowners appear to be cautiously awaiting more details before planning new transits of the Strait of Hormuz. They will seek reassurance that transits are not only permitted but also safe before sending their ships through the strait." The world watches with "wary disbelief" as this critical waterway prepares for a tentative reopening.
