A seismic shift could be on the horizon for Italy's banking sector. Banco BPM has officially extended an invitation to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) to commence discussions regarding a monumental merger. This potential tie-up promises to reshape the competitive landscape, creating Italy's second-largest banking group and surpassing existing giant UniCredit in terms of market value.
A Banco BPM SpA bank branch in Milan, Italy, on Nov. 15, 2024.
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This long-anticipated deal, which had previously faced resistance from UniCredit, is projected to forge an entity valued at approximately 50 billion euros ($58 billion) on the bustling Milan bourse. Banco BPM estimates that such a merger would significantly boost earnings per share by more than 10%, fueled by impressive annual pre-tax benefits exceeding 1.1 billion euros. Analysts are keenly watching, as this move could trigger a fresh wave of consolidation and dealmaking across the Italian banking industry, following a surge of M&A activity last year.
The board of Banco BPM, which notably includes representatives from France's Credit Agricole—its primary shareholder—unanimously endorsed the proposal to engage MPS in what they term a "merger of equals." While specific structural details of the deal remain under wraps, Banco BPM emphasized its intention to ensure both groups hold equivalent standing and influence within the newly formed combined entity.
As of now, MPS has not publicly responded to Banco BPM's announcement. However, with a board meeting slated for Monday, the Tuscan bank is expected to address the matter internally, marking its first formal opportunity to consider the strategic implications.
Banco BPM's interest in MPS dates back to November 2024, when it became a key investor following the Italian government's reprivatization of the historically significant but bailout-dependent bank. The prospect of a BPM-MPS alliance then prompted UniCredit to launch a takeover bid for Banco BPM itself. Although UniCredit's offer ultimately failed in July 2025, it effectively stalled Banco BPM's pursuit of alternative merger and acquisition strategies until now.
This renewed push highlights the dynamic environment of European banking, with Italian institutions actively seeking scale and efficiency in a competitive market.