Despite growing recession fears fueled by global events and economic indicators, this article argues that investors shouldn’t necessarily panic. The author suggests focusing on corporate profit margins and P/E multiples rather than solely relying on GDP forecasts to navigate a potential bear market. The piece highlights the impact of geopolitical factors like the Middle East conflict and oil prices on the economic outlook.
The next recession could actually be a win for stocks — if you can tune out the market noise
Corporate profit margins and P/E multiples — not GDP forecasts — are the real tools to surviving a bear market
Published: April 29, 2026 at 8:10 a.m. ET
Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto
You’re probably worrying too much about a recession.
I say that not because the U.S. economy will avoid recession — I have no idea. One could begin at any time — especially with the Middle East conflict and the skyrocketing oil prices CL00BRN00 to which it has led, coupled with the weak labor market and myriad other factors. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund warned of a global recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
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